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Robust Multiple Regimes in Growth Volatility

  • Andros Kourtellos

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Cyprus, Cyprus)

  • Ioanna Stylianou

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Cyprus, Cyprus)

  • Chih Ming Tan

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of North Dakota, USA)

In this paper we uncover growth volatility regimes and identify their robust determinants using a large international panel of countries. In doing so we propose a novel empirical methodology that allows us to simultaneously deal with two key elements of model uncertainty, namely theory uncertainty and parameter heterogeneity, by unifying two recent econometric techniques: Bayesian Model Averaging and Threshold Regression. We find ample evidence of parameter heterogeneity and model uncertainty. Our results highlight the role of Ethnic Fractionalization, Institutions, Financial Development, Health, and Geography.

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Paper provided by The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis in its series Working Paper Series with number 09_14.

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Date of creation: Mar 2014
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Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:09_14
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  1. Andros Kourtellos & Thanasis Stengos & Chih Ming Tan, 2011. "Structural Threshold Regression," Working Paper Series 49_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
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  11. Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan & Xiaobo Zhang, 2006. "Is the Relationship Between Aid and Economic Growth Nonlinear?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0614, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  12. McCaig, Brian & Stengos, Thanasis, 2005. "Financial intermediation and growth: Some robustness results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 306-312, September.
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  19. Chih Ming Tan, 2010. "No one true path: uncovering the interplay between geography, institutions, and fractionalization in economic development," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(7), pages 1100-1127, November/.
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  22. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Doppelhofer, Gernot, 2007. "Nonlinearities in cross-country growth regressions: A Bayesian Averaging of Thresholds (BAT) approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 541-554, September.
  23. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Liu, Zhenjuan & Stengos, Thanasis, 1999. "Non-linearities in Cross-Country Growth Regressions: A Semiparametric Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 527-38, Sept.-Oct.
  25. Miklos Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "Volatility and development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3743, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  27. Alberto Alesina & Reza Baqir & William Easterly, 1999. "Public Goods And Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1243-1284, November.
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  30. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2005. "Democracy, Volatility, and Economic Development," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 348-361, May.
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