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On the Stability of the Excess Sensitivity of Aggregate Consumption Growth in the USA

Author

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  • Gerdie Everaert
  • Lorenzo Pozzi
  • Ruben Schoonackers

Abstract

This paper investigates the degree of time variation in the excess sensitivity of aggregate con- sumption growth to anticipated aggregate disposable income growth using quarterly US data over the period 1953-2014. Our empirical framework contains the possibility of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth and takes into account measurement error and time aggregation. Our empirical specification is cast into a Bayesian state space model and estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We use a Bayesian model selection approach to deal with the non-regular test for the null hypothesis of no time variation in the excess sensitivity parameter. Anticipated disposable income growth is calculated by incorporating an instrumental variables estimation approach into our MCMC algorithm. Our results suggest that the excess sensitivity parameter in the US is stable at around 0.24 over the entire sample period.
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Suggested Citation

  • Gerdie Everaert & Lorenzo Pozzi & Ruben Schoonackers, 2017. "On the Stability of the Excess Sensitivity of Aggregate Consumption Growth in the USA," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 819-840, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:32:y:2017:i:4:p:819-840
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    Cited by:

    1. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, Kundan & Marfatia, Hardik, 2017. "Estimating excess sensitivity and habit persistence in consumption using Greenbook forecast as an instrument," MPRA Paper 79748, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Vipul Bhatt & N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik Marfatia, 2020. "Estimating Excess Sensitivity and Habit Persistence in Consumption Using Greenbook Forecasts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(2), pages 257-284, April.
    3. Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Stochastic debt sustainability analysis using time-varying fiscal reaction functions. An agnostic approach to fiscal forecasting," CQE Working Papers 10422, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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