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Do Borrowing Constraints Matter? An Analysis of Why the Permanent Income Hypothesis Does Not Apply in Japan

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  • Miki Kohara
  • Charles Yuji Horioka

Abstract

We use micro data on young married households from the Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers in order to analyze the importance of borrowing constraints in Japan. We find (1) that 8 to 15 percent of young married Japanese households are borrowing-constrained, (2) that household assets and the husband%u2019s educational attainment are the most important determinants of whether or not a household is borrowing-constrained, and (3) that the Euler equation implication is rejected for both the full sample and for the subsample of unconstrained households. These results suggest that the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis does not apply in Japan and that the presence of borrowing constraints is not the main reason why it does not apply.

Suggested Citation

  • Miki Kohara & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "Do Borrowing Constraints Matter? An Analysis of Why the Permanent Income Hypothesis Does Not Apply in Japan," NBER Working Papers 12330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12330
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    2. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2006. "The causes of Japan's `lost decade': The role of household consumption," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 378-400, December.
    3. Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2000. "Using subjective income expectations to test for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 337-358, February.
    4. Tullio Jappelli & Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Nicholas S. Souleles, 1998. "Testing For Liquidity Constraints In Euler Equations With Complementary Data Sources," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 251-262, May.
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    6. Shibata, Akihisa & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1998. "Capital mobility in the world economy: an alternative test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 741-756, October.
    7. Midori Wakabayashi & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2005. "Borrowing Constraints and Consumption Behavior in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0640, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    8. Fumio Hayashi, 1985. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis and Consumption Durability: Analysis Based on Japanese Panel Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1083-1113.
    9. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
    10. Runkle, David E., 1991. "Liquidity constraints and the permanent-income hypothesis : Evidence from panel data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 73-98, February.
    11. repec:fth:pennfi:69 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    13. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1982. "Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 417-425.
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles Yuji Horioka & Shizuka Sekita, 2009. "Are Fast Court Proceedings Good or Bad?: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data," Post-Print halshs-00407674, HAL.
    2. repec:bla:jconsa:v:51:y:2017:i:2:p:380-405 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Morita, Hiroshi, 2014. "External shocks and Japanese business cycles: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-74.
    4. Hiroshi Morita, 2012. "Expansionary Effect of an Anticipated Fiscal Policy on Consumption in Japan," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-219, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Charles Yuji Horioka & Shizuka Sekita, 2011. "The Degree of Judicial Enforcement and Credit Markets: Evidence from Japanese Household Panel Data," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 245-268, June.
    6. Ana María Ibáñez & Andrés Moya, 2006. "The Impact of Intra-State Conflict on Economic Welfare and Consumption Smoothing: Empirical Evidence for the Displaced Population in Colombia," HiCN Working Papers 23, Households in Conflict Network.
    7. Kohei Kubota & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2016. "Rational Consumers," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57, pages 231-254, February.
    8. Ibáñez, Ana María & Moya, Andrés, 2010. "Vulnerability of Victims of Civil Conflicts: Empirical Evidence for the Displaced Population in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 647-663, April.
    9. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say “Probably Not”," Working Papers IES 2016/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2016.
    10. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2010. "Co-breaking, cointegration, and weak exogeneity: Modelling aggregate consumption in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 574-584, March.
    11. repec:bla:jecrev:v:68:y:2017:i:3:p:364-393 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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