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Expansionary Effect of an Anticipated Fiscal Policy on Consumption in Japan


  • Hiroshi Morita


This paper investigates the effect of an anticipated fiscal policy on consumption in Japan. I identify an anticipated increment in public investment by using the excess stock returns on the construction industry and by applying the sign restriction VAR. The result shows that GDP and consumption respond to a public investment shock positively. Further, I demonstrate that the empirical facts are consistent with the New Keynesian model that has a high elasticity of labor supply and a large share of Non-Ricardians.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiroshi Morita, 2012. "Expansionary Effect of an Anticipated Fiscal Policy on Consumption in Japan," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-219, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hst:ghsdps:gd11-219

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Karel Mertens & MortenO. Ravn, 2010. "Measuring the Impact of Fiscal Policy in the Face of Anticipation: A Structural VAR Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 393-413, May.
    2. Kohara, Miki & Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2006. "Do borrowing constraints matter? An analysis of why the permanent income hypothesis does not apply in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 358-377, December.
    3. Andrea Colciago, 2011. "Rule‐of‐Thumb Consumers Meet Sticky Wages," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 325-353, March.
    4. JonasD.M. Fisher & Ryan Peters, 2010. "Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 414-436, May.
    5. IWATA Yasuharu, 2009. "Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Japanese Economy: Do Non-Ricardian Households Explain All?," ESRI Discussion paper series 216, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Sugo, Tomohiro & Ueda, Kozo, 2008. "Estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 476-502, December.
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    More about this item


    Fiscal Policy; Fiscal Foresight; Sign Restriction VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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