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Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Japan: Evidence from a Structural VAR with Sign Restrictions

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  • Kensuke Miyazawa
  • Kengo Nutahara

Abstract

In this paper, we employ structural vector autoregression (VAR) with sign restrictions to identify the dynamic effects of fiscal policy shocks in Japan. We find that (i) an increase in government spending has positive effects on consumption and wages in the short run, but these effects are not persistent, and the effects on GDP are almost zero. We also find, surprisingly, that (ii) an increase in government revenue has significant positive effects on GDP, consumption, and investment in the medium and long run although it has negative effects in the short run. Finally, (iii) the balanced-budget spending policy scenario is better than deficit-spending and deficit-financed tax-cut policy scenarios.

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  • Kensuke Miyazawa & Kengo Nutahara, 2013. "Dynamic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Japan: Evidence from a Structural VAR with Sign Restrictions," CIGS Working Paper Series 13-006E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnn:wpaper:13-006e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Hiroshi Morita, 2012. "Expansionary Effect of an Anticipated Fiscal Policy on Consumption in Japan," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-219, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Braun, R. Anton & Shioji, Etsuro, 2006. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 141-162, February.
    5. Toshihiro Ihori & Toru Nakazato & Masumi Kawade, 2003. "Japan's Fiscal Policies in the 1990s," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 325-338, March.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    7. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2001. "The Great Recession: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy from Japan," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2), pages 93-186.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nutahara, Kengo, 2015. "Laffer curves in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 56-72.

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