Co-breaking, cointegration, and weak exogeneity: Modelling aggregate consumption in Japan
This paper aims to estimate a parsimonious data-congruent model for aggregate real consumption in Japan using quarterly data over the past two decades. Testing co-breaking, cointegration and weak exogeneity plays an important role in pursuing the model reduction. It is demonstrated that co-breaking removes a deterministic shift caused by the collapse of the bubble economy in Japan in the early 1990s. Multivariate cointegration analysis then reveals that inflation plays a critical role in accounting for the long-run behaviour of the aggregate consumption. Further analysis finds that inflation and aggregate income are weakly exogenous with respect to a set of parameters of interest. Finally, a parsimonious data-congruent model for the aggregate consumption is estimated conditional on the set of weakly exogenous variables.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bent Nielsen, 2001. "Order determination in general vector autoregressions," Economics Papers 2001-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Janine Aron & John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2010.
"Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US,"
Economics Series Working Papers
487, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Aron, Janine & Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John N. & Murata, Keiko & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Credit, housing collateral and consumption: evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," Working Papers 1002, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Aron, Janine & Duca, John V & Muellbauer, John & Murata, Keiko & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Credit, Housing Collateral and Consumption: Evidence from the UK, Japan and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 7876, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
- Deaton, Angus, 1992. "Understanding Consumption," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288244, December.
- Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000.
"Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
- Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1494, Econometric Society.
- Kohara, Miki & Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2006.
"Do borrowing constraints matter? An analysis of why the permanent income hypothesis does not apply in Japan,"
Japan and the World Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 358-377, December.
- Miki Kohara & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "Do Borrowing Constraints Matter? An Analysis of Why the Permanent Income Hypothesis Does Not Apply in Japan," NBER Working Papers 12330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Miki Kohara & Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "Do Borrowing Constraints Matter? An Analysis of Why the Permanent Income Hypothesis Does Not Apply in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0663, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
- Jurgen A. Doornik, 1998.
"Approximations To The Asymptotic Distributions Of Cointegration Tests,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-593, December.
- Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2006.
"The causes of Japan's `lost decade': The role of household consumption,"
Japan and the World Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 378-400, December.
- Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "The Causes of Japan's 'Lost Decade': The Role of Household Consumption," ISER Discussion Paper 0661, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Charles Yuji Horioka, 2006. "The Causes of Japan's "Lost Decade": The Role of Household Consumption," NBER Working Papers 12142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kubota, Keiichi & Tokunaga, Toshifumi & Wada, Kenji, 2008. "Consumption behavior, asset returns, and risk aversion: Evidence from the Japanese household survey," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-18, January.
- Hendry, David F. & Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Co-Breaking: Recent Advances and a Synopsis of the Literature," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 33-51, January.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987.
"Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Doornik, Jurgen A & Hendry, David F & Nielsen, Bent, 1998.
" Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-72, December.
- Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 1998. "Inference in Cointegrating Models: UK M1 Revisited," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 533-572, December.
- Engle, R. F. & Granger, C. W. J. & Hylleberg, S. & Lee, H. S., 1993. "The Japanese consumption function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 275-298.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Bent Nielsen, 1995.
"Bartlett correction of the unit root test in autoregressive models,"
11 & 98., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Nielsen, B., 1995. "Bartlett Correction of the Unit Root test in Autoregressive Models," Economics Papers 98, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-68, March-Apr.
- Shigeyuki Hamori, 1996. "Consumption growth and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution: some evidence from income quintile groups in Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(8), pages 529-532.
- Urbain, J-P., 1991.
"On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models,"
9103, Liege - Centre de Recherches Economiques et Demographiques.
- Hendry, David F & Doornik, Jurgen A, 1994. "Modelling Linear Dynamic Econometric Systems," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 1-33, February.
- Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-92, December.
- Molana, H, 1990. "A Note on the Effect of Inflation on Consumers' Expenditure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15.
- Pagano, Patrizio, 2004. "Habit persistence and the marginal propensity to consume in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 316-329, September.
- Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing for Higher Order Serial Correlation in Regression Equations When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1303-10, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:2:p:574-584. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.