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The Stickiness of Aggregate Consumption Growth in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

  • G. EVERAERT

    ()

  • L. POZZI

    ()

  • -

This paper examines the sources of stickiness in aggregate consumption growth. We first derive a dynamic consumption equation which nests recent developments in consumption theory: ruleof- thumb consumption, habit formation, non-separabilities between both private consumption and hours worked and private consumption and government consumption, intertemporal substitution effects and precautionary savings. Next, we estimate this dynamic consumption equation for a panel of 15 OECD countries over the period 1972-2007 taking into account endogeneity issues and error cross-sectional dependence. To this end, we develop a generalised method of moments version of the common correlated effects pooled estimator and demonstrate its small sample behaviour using Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results support the labour-consumption complementarity hypothesis, the rule-of-thumb consumption model and the notion that precautionary savings matter for the aggregate economy

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Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 10/654.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:10/654
Contact details of provider: Postal: Hoveniersberg 4, B-9000 Gent
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Web page: http://www.ugent.be/eb

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  1. Galí, Jordi & López-Salido, J David & Vallés Liberal, Javier, 2005. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 5212, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  3. Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Bias in Dynamic Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends and Cross Section Dependence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1438, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jun 2004.
  5. Loayza, Norman & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Serven, Luis, 2000. "What drives private saving around the world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2309, The World Bank.
  6. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 1989. "Consumption and Capital Market Imperfections: An International Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1088-1105, December.
  7. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 2436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ricardo Reis, 2004. "Inattentive Consumers," Working Papers 135, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Discussion Papers in Economics..
  10. Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1982. "Hall's consumption hypothesis and durable goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 417-425.
  11. Pischke, Jörn-Steffen, 1991. "Individual income, incomplete information, and aggregate consumption," ZEW Discussion Papers 91-07, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  12. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Smith, Ron, 2006. "Unobserved heterogeneity in panel time series models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2361-2380, May.
  13. Fiorito, Riccardo & Padrini, Flavio, 2001. " Distortionary Taxation and Labour Market Performance," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(2), pages 173-96, May.
  14. Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Ron Smith, 2002. "A Principal Components Approach to Cross-Section Dependence in Panels," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B5-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  15. Evans, Paul & Karras, Georgios, 1998. "Liquidity Constraints and the Substitutability between Private and Government Consumption: The Role of Military and Non-military Spending," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 203-14, April.
  16. J. Humberto Lopez & K. Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy in Raising National Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 226-238, May.
  17. Campbell, John Y., 1999. "Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 19, pages 1231-1303 Elsevier.
  18. Michael T. Kiley, 2007. "Habit persistence, non-separability between consumption and leisure, or rule-of thumb consumers: which accounts for the predictability of consumption growth?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  20. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, 06.
  21. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  22. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Joakim Westerlund, 2008. "Panel cointegration tests of the Fisher effect," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 193-233.
  24. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  25. Marjorie Flavin, 1985. "Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Current Income: Liquidity Constraints or Myopia?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 117-36, February.
  26. Campbell, John Y. & Mankiw, N. Gregory, 1991. "The response of consumption to income : A cross-country investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 723-756, May.
  27. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
  28. Sommer Martin, 2007. "Habit Formation and Aggregate Consumption Dynamics," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, August.
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