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The Predictability Of Aggregate Consumption Growth In Oecd Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

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  • Gerdie Everaert
  • Lorenzo Pozzi

Abstract

SUMMARY We examine aggregate consumption growth predictability. We derive a dynamic consumption equation which encompasses relevant predictability factors: habit formation, intertemporal substitution, current income consumption and non‐separabilities between private consumption and both hours worked and government consumption. We estimate this equation for a panel of 15 OECD countries over the period 1972–2007, taking into account parameter heterogeneity, endogeneity and error cross‐sectional dependence using a GMM version of the common correlated effects mean group estimator. Small‐sample properties are demonstrated using Monte Carlo simulations. The estimation results support income growth as the only variable with significant predictive power for aggregate consumption growth. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Gerdie Everaert & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2014. "The Predictability Of Aggregate Consumption Growth In Oecd Countries: A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 431-453, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:29:y:2014:i:3:p:431-453
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eecrev:v:95:y:2017:i:c:p:142-167 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Tim Buyse & Freddy Heylen & Ruben Schoonackers, 2015. "On The Role Of Public Policies And Wage Formation For Private Investment In R&D: A Long-Run Panel Analysis," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/911, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. Havranek, Tomas & Rusnak, Marek & Sokolova, Anna, 2017. "Habit formation in consumption: A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 142-167.
    4. Adema, Yvonne & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2015. "Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: A panel data analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 214-233.

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