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Evidence on excess sensitivity of consumption to predictable income growth

  • Limosani, Michele
  • Millemaci, Emanuele

This paper tests for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth using a behavioral model that allows for myopia and/or irrationality. We use a micro-dataset containing subjective expectations about future income and subjective indicators of the families' financial condition that make us possible to evaluate the response to income changes of agents with liquidity constraint problems. We do not find significant evidence of excess sensitivity of consumption to income, as well as in the case in which we take into account liquidity constraints. Moreover, we find that agent's systematic errors are statistically significant in explaining consumption changes for all specifications considered.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Research in Economics.

Volume (Year): 65 (2011)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 71-77

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:65:y:2011:i:2:p:71-77
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622941

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  1. Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2000. "Using subjective income expectations to test for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 337-358, February.
  2. Sydney Ludvigson & Christina H. Paxson, 2001. "Approximation Bias In Linearized Euler Equations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 242-256, May.
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  8. Garcia, Rene & Lusardi, Annamaria & Ng, Serena, 1997. "Excess Sensitivity and Asymmetries in Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 154-76, May.
  9. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
  10. Robert E. Hall & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1980. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," NBER Working Papers 0505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Tullio Jappelli & Jörn-Steffen Pischke & Nicholas S. Souleles, 1998. "Testing For Liquidity Constraints In Euler Equations With Complementary Data Sources," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 251-262, May.
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  13. Deaton, A., 1989. "Saving And Liquidity Constraints," Papers 153, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
  14. Orazio P. Attanasio, 1993. "A Cohort Analysis of Saving Behavior by U.S. Households," NBER Working Papers 4454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, December.
  16. Dominitz, Jeff, 2001. "Estimation of income expectations models using expectations and realization data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 165-195, June.
  17. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
  18. Marjorie Flavin, 1999. "Robust Estimation of the Joint Consumption / Asset Demand Decision," NBER Working Papers 7011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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