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Evaluating how predictable errors in expected income affect consumption

  • Giamboni, Luigi
  • Millemaci, Emanuele
  • Waldmann, Robert

This paper studies whether anomalies in consumption can be explained by a behavioral model in which agents make predictable errors in forecasting income. We use a micro-data set containing subjective expectations about future income. The paper shows that, the null hypothesis of rational expectations is rejected in favor of the behavioral model, since consumption responds to predictable forecast errors. On average agents who we predict are too pessimistic increase consumption after the predictable positive income shock. On average agents who are too optimistic reduce consumption.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/12939/1/MPRA_paper_12939.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 12939.

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Date of creation: 10 May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12939
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  1. Sydney Ludvigson & Christina H. Paxson, 1999. "Approximation Bias in Linearized Euler Equations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0236, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Luigi Pistaferri & Tullio Jappelli, 1998. "Using Subjective Income Expectations to Test for Excess Sensitivity of Consumption to Predicted Income Growth," CSEF Working Papers 12, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  3. Martin Browning & Annamaria Lusardi, 1995. "Household Saving: Micro Theories and Micro Facts," Department of Economics Working Papers 1995-02, McMaster University.
  4. Hall, Robert E & Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income: Estimates from Panel Data on Households," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 461-81, March.
  5. Marjorie A. Flavin, 1991. "The Joint Consumption/Asset Demand Decision: A Case Study in Robust Estimation," NBER Working Papers 3802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318 Elsevier.
  7. Jeff Dominitz, 1998. "Earnings Expectations, Revisions, And Realizations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 374-388, August.
  8. J. Dominitz & C. F. Manski, . "Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1050-94, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
  9. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 275-98, May.
  10. Dominitz, Jeff, 2001. "Estimation of income expectations models using expectations and realization data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 165-195, June.
  11. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
  12. Marjorie Flavin, 1999. "Robust Estimation of the Joint Consumption / Asset Demand Decision," NBER Working Papers 7011, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
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