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The long-run decline in the share of agricultural and food products in international trade: a gravity equation approach to its causes

Author

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  • Raul Serrano

    (Applied Economics and Economic History - Universidad de Zaragoza = University of Zaragoza [Saragossa University] = Université de Saragosse)

  • Vicente Pinilla

    (Applied Economics and Economic History - Universidad de Zaragoza = University of Zaragoza [Saragossa University] = Université de Saragosse)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to determine the causes of the loss of share of agricultural products and food in international trade. The article compares, using a gravity model, the impact of various factors upon bilateral trade in agricultural products, in manufactures and in total trade, between 1963 and 2000 for a representative sample of 40 countries. The results clearly demonstrate how the low demand elasticity for agricultural products and food, the high degree of protectionism to which they were subjected and their meagre share in intra-industrial trade are the principal causes of their relatively slow growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Raul Serrano & Vicente Pinilla, 2011. "The long-run decline in the share of agricultural and food products in international trade: a gravity equation approach to its causes," Post-Print hal-00716633, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00716633
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.587786
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    2. Permani, Risti & Xu, Xing, 2020. "The Nexus between Natural disasters, Supply Chains and Trade – Revisiting the Role of FTAs in Disaster Risk Reduction," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304269, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Raúl Serrano & Vicente Pinilla, 2014. "New directions of trade for the agri-food industry: a disaggregated approach for different income countries, 1963–2000," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-22, December.
    4. Duarte, Rosa & Pinilla, Vicente & Serrano, Ana, 2021. "The globalization of Mediterranean agriculture: A long-term view of the impact on water consumption," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    5. Miguel Tinoco-Zermeño & Francisco Venegas-Martínez & Víctor Torres-Preciado, 2014. "Growth, bank credit, and inflation in Mexico: evidence from an ARDL-bounds testing approach," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 23(1), pages 1-22, December.
    6. Rodolfo Campos & Mario Larch & Jacopo Timini & Elena Vidal & Yoto Yotov, 2024. "Does the WTO Promote Trade? A Meta-analysis," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2024-11, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    7. Faraji Dizaji, Sajjad & Jariani, Farzaneh & Najarzadeh, Reza, 2018. "Impact of sanctions on bilateral trade of agricultural products between Iran and MENA region and the EU countries," MPRA Paper 89438, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. GAIGNE, Carl & LAROCHE DUPRAZ, Cathie & MATTHEWS, Alan, 2015. "Thirty years of European research on international trade in food and agricultural products," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement (RAEStud), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), vol. 96(01), March.
    9. Risti Permani & Xing Xu, 2022. "The nexus between natural disasters, supply chains and trade—Revisiting the role of preferential trade agreements in disaster risk reduction," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(10), pages 3002-3030, October.
    10. Kym Anderson, 2023. "Agriculture's globalization: Endowments, technologies, tastes and policies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1314-1352, September.
    11. Kym Anderson & Vicente Pinilla, 2022. "Wine's belated globalization, 1845–2025," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 742-765, June.
    12. Poomthan Rangkakulnuwat & Rungravee Weravess, 2022. "The gravity model for rice exports: The cases of India and Thailand," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1432-1473.
    13. Leitão, Nuno Carlos & Tripathi, Sabyasachi, 2013. "Portuguese Trade and European Union: The Gravity Model," MPRA Paper 45994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Pablo Delgado & Vicente Pinilla & Ignacio Belloc, 2025. "From net importer to global leader: understanding the drivers of Spain’s meat export growth since the 1960s," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 19(2), pages 487-519, May.
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