IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bri/cmpowp/07-168.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Birth Spacing, Fertility and Neonatal Mortality in India:Dynamics, Frailty and Fecundity

Author

Listed:
  • Sonia Bhalotra
  • Arthur van Soest

Abstract

A dynamic panel data model of neonatal mortality and birth spacing is analyzed, accounting for causal effects of birth spacing on subsequent mortality and of mortality on the length of the next birth interval, while controlling for unobserved heterogeneity in mortality (frailty) and birth spacing (fecundity). The model is estimated using micro data on almost 30,000 children of 7,300 Indian mothers, for whom a complete retrospective record of fertility and child mortality is available. Information on sterilization is used to identify an equation for completion of family formation that is needed to account for right-censoring in the data. We find clear evidence of frailty, fecundity, and causal effects of birth spacing on mortality and vice versa, but find that birth interval effects can explain only a limited share of the correlation between neonatal mortality of successive children in a family. We also predict the impact of mortality on total fertility. Model simulations suggest that, for every neonatal death, an additional 0.37 children are born, of whom 0.3 survive.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonia Bhalotra & Arthur van Soest, 2007. "Birth Spacing, Fertility and Neonatal Mortality in India:Dynamics, Frailty and Fecundity," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 07/168, The Centre for Market and Public Organisation, University of Bristol, UK.
  • Handle: RePEc:bri:cmpowp:07/168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bris.ac.uk/Depts/CMPO/workingpapers/wp168.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rob Alessie & Stefan Hochguertel & Arthur van Soest, 2004. "Ownership of Stocks and Mutual Funds: A Panel Data Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 783-796, August.
    2. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1995. "Sisters, Siblings, and Mothers: The Effect of Teen-Age Childbearing on Birth Outcomes in a Dynamic Family Context," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(2), pages 303-326, March.
    3. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1988. "Heterogeneity, Intrafamily Distribution, and Child Health," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 23(4), pages 437-461.
    4. Whitworth, Alison & Stephenson, Rob, 2002. "Birth spacing, sibling rivalry and child mortality in India," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 55(12), pages 2107-2119, December.
    5. Olsen, Randall J & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1983. "The Impact of Exogenous Child Mortality on Fertility: A Waiting Time Regression with Dynamic Regressors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(3), pages 731-749, May.
    6. Heckman, James J & Hotz, V Joseph & Walker, James R, 1985. "New Evidence on the Timing and Spacing of Births," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 179-184, May.
    7. Pritchett, Lant H. & DEC, 1994. "Desired fertility and the impact of population policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1273, The World Bank.
    8. McFadden, Daniel & Ruud, Paul A, 1994. "Estimation by Simulation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(4), pages 591-608, November.
    9. DaVanzo, J. & Pebley, A.R., 1993. "Maternal Depletion and Child Survival in Guatemala and Malaysia," Papers 93-18, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
    10. Charles F. Manski, 1993. "Identification of Endogenous Social Effects: The Reflection Problem," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(3), pages 531-542.
    11. repec:pri:cheawb:cutler_deaton_lleras-muney_determinants_mortality_nberdec05 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2000. "A framework for estimating dynamic, unobserved effects panel data models with possible feedback to future explanatory variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 245-250, September.
    13. Angrist, Joshua D & Evans, William N, 1998. "Children and Their Parents' Labor Supply: Evidence from Exogenous Variation in Family Size," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 450-477, June.
    14. David Cutler & Angus Deaton & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2006. "The Determinants of Mortality," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 97-120, Summer.
    15. Akerlof, George A, 1998. "Men without Children," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 287-309, March.
    16. Siân Curtis & Ian Diamond & John McDonald, 1993. "Birth interval and family effects on postneonatal mortality in Brazil," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 30(1), pages 33-43, February.
    17. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
    18. Arulampalam, Wiji & Bhalotra, Sonia R., 2006. "Sibling Death Clustering in India: State Dependence vs. Unobserved Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 2251, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2002. "Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 411-439, December.
    20. repec:pri:cheawb:cutler_deaton_lleras-muney_determinants_mortality_nberdec05.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Bolstad W. M & Manda S. O, 2001. "Investigating Child Mortality in Malawi Using Family and Community Random Effects: A Bayesian Analysis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 12-19, March.
    22. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    23. Hajivassiliou, Vassilis A. & Ruud, Paul A., 1986. "Classical estimation methods for LDV models using simulation," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 40, pages 2383-2441, Elsevier.
    24. Pushkar Maitra & Sarmistha Pal, 2004. "Birth Spacing and Child Survival: Comparative Evidence from India and Pakistan," Labor and Demography 0403023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Bhargava, Alok, 2003. "Family planning, gender differences and infant mortality: evidence from Uttar Pradesh, India," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 225-240, January.
    26. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
    27. repec:pri:rpdevs:cutler_deaton_lleras-muney_determinants_mortality_nberdec05 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1983. "Consumer Demand and Household Production: The Relationship between Fertility and Child Mortality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 38-42, May.
    29. World Bank, 2004. "Attaining the Millennium Development Goals in India : How Likely and What Will It Take to Reduce Infant Mortality, Child Malnutrition, Gender Disparities and Hunger-Poverty and to Increase School Enro," World Bank Publications - Reports 15738, The World Bank Group.
    30. O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Labor Economics," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3, December.
    31. repec:pri:rpdevs:cutler_deaton_lleras-muney_determinants_mortality_nberdec05.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Heckman, James J, 1974. "Shadow Prices, Market Wages, and Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(4), pages 679-694, July.
    33. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1989. "Schooling, Information and Nonmarket Productivity: Contraceptive Use and Its Effectiveness," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(2), pages 457-477, May.
    34. Gary Solon & Mary Corcoran & GRoger Gordon & Deborah Laren, 1991. "A Longitudinal Analysis of Sibling Correlations in Economic Status," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 26(3), pages 509-534.
    35. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226740867 is not listed on IDEAS
    36. Mizanur Rahman & Julie DaVanzo, 1993. "Gender preference and birth spacing in matlab, Bangladesh," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 30(3), pages 315-332, August.
    37. Wiji Arulampalam & Sonia Bhalotra, 2003. "Sibling Death Clustering in India: Genuine Scarring vs Unobserved Heterogeneity," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/552, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    38. Schultz, T. Paul, 1993. "Demand for children in low income countries," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 349-430, Elsevier.
    39. M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), 1997. "Handbook of Population and Family Economics," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1, December.
    40. Elizabeth Zenger, 1993. "Siblings’ neonatal mortality risks and birth spacing in Bangladesh," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 30(3), pages 477-488, August.
    41. Card, David, 1999. "The causal effect of education on earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 30, pages 1801-1863, Elsevier.
    42. Alessandro Cigno, 1998. "Fertility decisions when infant survival is endogenous," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 11(1), pages 21-28.
    43. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Schultz, T Paul, 1983. "Estimating a Household Production Function: Heterogeneity, the Demand for Health Inputs, and Their Effects on Birth Weight," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 723-746, October.
    44. Ben-Porath, Yoram, 1976. "Fertility Response to Child Mortality: Micro Data from Israel," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(4), pages 163-178, August.
    45. DaVanzo, J. & Rahman, M., 1993. "Gender Preference and Birthspacing in Matlab, Bangladesh," Papers 93-04, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
    46. Randall Olsen, 1980. "Estimating the effect of child mortality on the number of births," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 17(4), pages 429-443, November.
    47. Robert Moffitt, 2003. "Causal Analysis in Population Research: An Economist's Perspective," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 29(3), pages 448-458, September.
    48. Arulampalam, Wiji & Bhalotra, Sonia R., 2006. "Persistence in Infant Mortality: Evidence for the Indian States," IZA Discussion Papers 2488, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sonia Bhalotra & Arthur van Soest, 2004. "Birth Spacing and Neonatal Mortality in India: Dynamics, Frailty and Fecundity," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 04/567, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. Sonia Bhalotra & Arthur van Soest, 2004. "Birth Spacing and Neonatal Mortality in India: Dynamics, Frailty and Fecundity," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 04/567, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    3. Saha, U.R., 2012. "Econometric models of child mortality dynamics in rural Bangladesh," Other publications TiSEM f734b639-9696-480e-96f0-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. van Soest, A.H.O. & Saha, U.R., 2012. "Birth Spacing, Child Survival and Fertility Decisions : Analysis of Causal Mechanismsa," Discussion Paper 2012-018, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Schultz, T. Paul, 2010. "Population and Health Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4785-4881, Elsevier.
    6. Wiji Arulampalam & Sonia Bhalotra, 2004. "Inequality in Infant Survival Rates in India: Identification of State-Dependence Effects," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 04/558, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    7. Arulampalam, Wiji & Bhalotra, Sonia R., 2006. "Persistence in Infant Mortality: Evidence for the Indian States," IZA Discussion Papers 2488, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Arulampalam, Wiji & Bhalotra, Sonia R., 2006. "Sibling Death Clustering in India: State Dependence vs. Unobserved Heterogeneity," IZA Discussion Papers 2251, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Bloom, D.E. & Luca, D.L., 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 3-56, Elsevier.
    10. Wiji Arulampalam & Sonia Bhalotra, 2003. "Sibling Death Clustering in India: Genuine Scarring vs Unobserved Heterogeneity," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/552, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    11. Dinçer, Mehmet Alper & Kaushal, Neeraj & Grossman, Michael, 2014. "Women’s Education: Harbinger of Another Spring? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Turkey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 243-258.
    12. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Belgi Turan, 2013. "Left behind: intergenerational transmission of human capital in the midst of HIV/AIDS," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1523-1547, October.
    13. Canning, David & Günther, Isabel & Linnemayr, Sebastian & Bloom, David, 2013. "Fertility choice, mortality expectations, and interdependent preferences—An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 273-289.
    14. Pierre‐Carl Michaud & Konstantinos Tatsiramos, 2011. "Fertility and female employment dynamics in Europe: the effect of using alternative econometric modeling assumptions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 641-668, June.
    15. Peter Haan, 2005. "State Dependence and Female Labor Supply in Germany: The Extensive and the Intensive Margin," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 538, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Justin McCrary & Heather Royer, 2011. "The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 158-195, February.
    17. Lorenzo Cappellari, 2007. "Earnings mobility among Italian low-paid workers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 20(2), pages 465-482, April.
    18. Behrman, Jere R., 2010. "Investment in Education Inputs and Incentives," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4883-4975, Elsevier.
    19. Papagni, Erasmo, 2018. "Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes," GLO Discussion Paper Series 248, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    20. Martin Biewen, 2004. "Measuring State Dependence in Individual Poverty Status: Are there Feedback Effects to Employment Decisions and Household Composition?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 429, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; birth spacing; neonatal mortality; health; dynamic panel data models; siblings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bri:cmpowp:07/168. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmbriuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cmbriuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.