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Fertility and Female Employment Dynamics in Europe: The Effect of Using Alternative Econometric Modeling Assumptions

Author

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  • Michaud, Pierre-Carl

    () (HEC Montreal)

  • Tatsiramos, Konstantinos

    () (University of Luxembourg, LISER)

Abstract

We investigate the direct and long-run effects of fertility on employment in Europe estimating dynamic models of labor supply under different assumptions regarding the exogeneity of fertility and modeling assumptions related to initial conditions, unobserved heterogeneity and serial correlation in the error terms. We find overall large direct and long-run effects of giving birth on employment probabilities, and these effects differ considerably across countries. We find that within countries the results are sensitive to the statistical assumption made on initial conditions, the inclusion of serial correlation and the assumption of strict exogeneity of children. However, the pattern across countries is robust to these assumptions. We show that such patterns are largely consistent with prevailing institutional differences related to the flexibility of the labor markets and family policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Tatsiramos, Konstantinos, 2008. "Fertility and Female Employment Dynamics in Europe: The Effect of Using Alternative Econometric Modeling Assumptions," IZA Discussion Papers 3853, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3853
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    intertemporal labor supply; female employment; fertility; initial conditions; dynamic binary choice models;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

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