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Childhood disease and the precautionary demand for children

  • Anna-Maria Aksan
  • Shankha Chakraborty

    ()

The childhood disease burden depends on the prevalence of infectious diseases, their case fatalities, and long-term morbidity. We propose a quantity–quality model of fertility choice under uncertainty that emphasizes morbidity and mortality from infectious disease. The fertility response to a decline in child mortality depends on the morbidity effect of the disease, the prevalence rate, and whether the prevalence or case fatality rate declines. Fertility follows mortality and morbidity, but since mortality and morbidity do not always move in the same direction, the fertility response may be dampened or nonmonotonic. Disease-specific evidence from sub-Saharan Africa supports these theoretical predictions. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2013

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00148-012-0430-z
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Article provided by Springer & European Society for Population Economics in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 26 (2013)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Pages: 855-885

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:3:p:855-885
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  1. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Hélène Latzer, 2009. "How do epidemics induce behavioral changes?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 233-264, September.
  2. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
  3. Sah, Raaj Kumar, 1991. "The Effects of Child Mortality Changes on Fertility Choice and Parental Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 582-606, June.
  4. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
  5. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, 01.
  6. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(1), pages 1-25.
  7. Luis Angeles, 2010. "Demographic transitions: analyzing the effects of mortality on fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 99-120, January.
  8. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2008. "The uncertain lifetime and the timing of human capital investment," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 557-572, July.
  9. Robert Tamura, 2004. "Human capital and economic development," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Hoyt Bleakley, 2007. "Disease and Development: Evidence from Hookworm Eradication in the American South," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 122(1), pages 73-117.
  11. repec:cor:louvrp:-2160 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Matthias Doepke, 2005. "Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fit the facts?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 337-366, 06.
  13. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2011. "Uncovering the impact of the HIV epidemic on fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa: the case of Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 629-655, April.
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