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HIV and fertility revisited

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  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem
  • Turan, Belgi

Abstract

Young (2005) argues that HIV related population declines reinforced by the fertility response to the epidemic will lead to higher capital-labor ratios and to higher per capita incomes in the affected countries of Africa. Using household level data on fertility from South Africa and relying on between cohort variations in country level HIV infection, he estimates a large negative effect of HIV prevalence on fertility. However, the studies that utilize the recent rounds of Demographic Health Surveys, where fertility outcomes are linked to HIV status based on testing, find no effect of the disease on the fertility behavior. This paper tries to bridge this gap by revisiting Young's findings. Young (2005) includes data before 1990, when no data are available on HIV prevalence rates. He assigns all the fertility observations before 1990 with HIV prevalence rates of zero, and this appears to drive the significant negative effect found in his study. When one restricts the sample to the period 1990-1998, where actual HIV data are available, the effect of HIV prevalence on fertility turns out to be positive for South Africa. Simulating Young's model utilizing these new estimates shows that the future generations of South Africa are worse off.

Suggested Citation

  • Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Turan, Belgi, 2011. "HIV and fertility revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 61-65, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:96:y:2011:i:1:p:61-65
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alwyn Young, 2005. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 423-466.
    2. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    3. Jane G. Fortson, 2009. "HIV/AIDS and Fertility," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 170-194, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodolfo Manuelli, 2011. "Disease and Development: The Role of Human Capital," Working Papers 2011-008, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    2. McCord, Gordon C. & Conley, Dalton & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 2017. "Malaria ecology, child mortality & fertility," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Luciano Fanti & Luca Gori, 2014. "Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 529-564, April.
    4. repec:spr:jopoec:v:31:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00148-017-0669-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Wang, Ruixin, 2015. "Essays on development economics and public economics," Other publications TiSEM e1779514-5b71-4726-925b-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Lin Liu & Aditya Goenka, 2017. "Infectious Diseases, Human Capital and Economic Growth," 2017 Meeting Papers 1218, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Mevlude Akbulut-Yuksel & Belgi Turan, 2013. "Left behind: intergenerational transmission of human capital in the midst of HIV/AIDS," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1523-1547, October.
    8. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-11, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
    9. Nicholas Wilson, 2015. "Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV and Reproductive Behavior in Zambia," NBER Chapters,in: African Successes, Volume II: Human Capital, pages 59-83 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. "AIDS, “reversal” of the demographic transition and economic development: evidence from Africa," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 25(3), pages 871-897, July.
    11. Marinescu, Ioana, 2014. "HIV, wages, and the skill premium," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 181-197.
    12. Kudo, Yuya, 2016. "Malaria infection and fetal growth during the war : evidence from Liberia," IDE Discussion Papers 556, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    13. Paul Cahu & Falilou Fall, 2011. "Accounting for the effects of AIDS on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00609798, HAL.
    14. Urbain Thierry Yogo & Douzounet Mallaye, 2015. "Health Aid and Health Improvement in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Accounting for the Heterogeneity Between Stable States and Post‐Conflict States," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1178-1196, October.
    15. Ruben Castro & Jere Behrman & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2015. "Perception of HIV risk and the quantity and quality of children: the case of rural Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 113-132, January.
    16. Chinhui Juhn & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Belgi Turan, 2013. "HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(3), pages 835-853, July.
    17. Thomas Barnebeck Andersen & Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Pablo Selaya, 2011. "Eye Disease and Development," Discussion Papers 11-22, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    18. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2017. "Disease and Fertility: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1179, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    19. Dick Durevall & Annika Lindskog, 2016. "Adult Mortality, AIDS, and Fertility in Rural Malawi," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(3), pages 215-242, September.
    20. William W. Olney, 2015. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 694-727.
    21. Elizabeth Asiedu & Yi Jin & Isaac Kalonda-Kanyama, 2012. "The Impact of HIV/AIDS on Foreign Direct Investment: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201207, University of Kansas, Department of Economics.
    22. Burke, Marshall & Gong, Erick & Jones, Kelly, 2011. "Income shocks and HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa:," IFPRI discussion papers 1146, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    23. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2017. "Disease and Fertility: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 10834, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    24. Wilson, Nicholas, 2015. "Child mortality risk and fertility: Evidence from prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 74-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    HIV/AIDS Fertility Development;

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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