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The Impact of Malaria Eradication on Fertility

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  • Adrienne M. Lucas

Abstract

The malaria eradication campaign that started in Sri Lanka in the late 1940s virtually eliminated malaria transmission on the island. I use the preeradication differences in malaria endemicity within Sri Lanka to identify the effect of malaria eradication on fertility and child survival. Malaria eradication increased the number of live births through increasing age-specific fertility and causing an earlier first birth. The effect of malaria on the transition time to higher-order births is inconclusive. Malaria could directly or indirectly affect survival probabilities of live births. I exploit the particular epidemiology of malaria that causes more severe sequelae during an initial pregnancy. I find differential changes in survival probabilities by birth order that are most likely due to the direct in utero effects of malaria. The increase in population growth after malaria eradication reconciles the contradictory findings in the macroeconomic and microeconomic literatures: the increased productivity and education from malaria eradication will only appear in aggregate measures like GDP per capita after a delay because of the initial increase in the population size.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrienne M. Lucas, 2013. "The Impact of Malaria Eradication on Fertility," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 607-631.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:doi:10.1086/669261
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    Cited by:

    1. Nava Ashraf & Günther Fink & David N. Weil, 2014. "Evaluating the Effects of Large-Scale Health Interventions in Developing Countries: The Zambian Malaria Initiative," NBER Chapters,in: African Successes, Volume II: Human Capital, pages 13-57 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. McCord, Gordon C. & Conley, Dalton & Sachs, Jeffrey D., 2017. "Malaria ecology, child mortality & fertility," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-17.
    3. Quamrul H. Ashraf & Ashley Lester & David N. Weil, 2009. "When Does Improving Health Raise GDP?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 157-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jean-Claude Berthelemy & Josselin Thuilliez, 2014. "The economics of malaria in Africa," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01045213, HAL.
    5. Josselin Thuilliez & Hippolyte d'Albis & Hamidou Niangaly & Ogobara Doumbo, 2017. "Malaria and Education: Evidence from Mali," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 26(4), pages 443-469.
    6. Kaletski, Elizabeth & Prakash, Nishith, 2016. "Does Political Reservation for Minorities Affect Child Labor? Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 50-69.
    7. repec:spr:jopoec:v:31:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00148-017-0669-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Garg, Teevrat, 2014. "Public Health Effects of Natural Resource Degradation: Evidence from Indonesia," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169822, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. David Cutler & Winnie Fung & Michael Kremer & Monica Singhal & Tom Vogl, 2007. "Mosquitoes: The Long-term Effects of Malaria Eradication in India," NBER Working Papers 13539, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Nicholas Wilson, 2011. "Fertility Responses to Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV," Department of Economics Working Papers 2011-11, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Sep 2011.
    11. Daniel Aaronson & Fabian Lange & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2014. "Fertility Transitions along the Extensive and Intensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3701-3724, November.
    12. Maria Kuecken & Josselin Thuilliez & Marie-Anne Valfort, 2013. "Large-scale health interventions and education: Evidence from Roll Back Malaria in Africa," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13075r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Jun 2015.
    13. Kaletski, Elizabeth & Prakash, Nishith, 2014. "Can Elected Minority Representatives Affect Health Worker Visits? Evidence from India," IZA Discussion Papers 8387, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Flückiger, Matthias & Ludwig, Markus, 2017. "Malaria suitability, urbanization and persistence: Evidence from China over more than 2000 years," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 146-160.
    15. Joshua Wilde & Bénédicte H. Apouey & Gabriel Picone & Joseph Coleman, 2017. "The Effect of Antimalarial Campaigns on Child Mortality and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 0616, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    16. David Cutler & Winnie Fung & Michael Kremer & Monica Singhal & Tom Vogl, 2010. "Early-Life Malaria Exposure and Adult Outcomes: Evidence from Malaria Eradication in India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 72-94, April.
    17. Chicoine, Luke, 2016. "Identifying National Level Education Reforms in Developing Settings: An Application to Ethiopia," IZA Discussion Papers 9916, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    18. Ager, Philipp & Worm Hansen, Casper & Sandholt Jensen, Peter, 2014. "Fertility and early-life mortality: Evidence from smallpox vaccination in Sweden," MPRA Paper 57650, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Gooch, Elizabeth, 2017. "The impact of reduced incidence of malaria and other mosquito-borne diseases on global population," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 214-228.
    20. William W. Olney, 2015. "Remittances and the Wage Impact of Immigration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(3), pages 694-727.
    21. repec:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0607-x is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Chicoine, Luke, 2016. "Free Primary Education, Schooling, and Fertility: Evidence from Ethiopia," IZA Discussion Papers 10387, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    23. Wilson, Nicholas, 2015. "Child mortality risk and fertility: Evidence from prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 74-88.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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