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Covid-19 vaccine benefit during the Omicron wave in France

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Abstract

During the Covid-19 pandemic, the Omicron wave was notable for its highly transmissible and contagious variant of concern, coinciding with the availability of a vaccine that has been rolled out well earlier. In this paper, we address two key questions. First, we seek todesign a simple epidemiological model that can best capture the dynamics of Omicron infections. We demonstrate that combining the SIRDand SISD models provides an adequate solution. The second question examines the benefits of vaccination, in terms of both economicactivity and lives saved, once the model is implemented. Our results show that without vaccination, the human cost would have been fivetimes higher, and production losses would have doubled, due to stricter con- finement measures and a higher death toll. We also quantify the cost of vaccine hesitancy at more than 8,000 extra deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Lubrano & Pierre Michel, 2025. "Covid-19 vaccine benefit during the Omicron wave in France," AMSE Working Papers 2528, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    • Handle: RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2528
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    File URL: https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/sites/default/files/working_papers/wp_2025_nr_28_0.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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