Mistrust and Missed Shots: Trust and COVID-19 vaccination decisions

We investigate the effect of interpersonal and institutional trust on COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy. Although the development of COVID-19 vaccinations helped to reduce the spread and severity of the disease, ongoing vaccine hesitancy has presented a challenge. We ask whether interpersonal and institutional trust predict COVID-19 vaccination delay and refusal. We use an unprecedently rich and representative dataset of over 22,000 New Zealand respondents, sourced from the 2014, 2016, and 2018 General Social Survey. Respondents reported their trust in seven domains: Parliament, police, health, education, courts, media, and the general public. Their survey responses are linked to respondents’ later records of vaccinations and their socio-demographic characteristics. We assess the correlation between their earlier interpersonal and institutional trust and vaccination delay and refusal while controlling for relevant covariates. We find that all measured trust domains exhibit a significant and negative correlation with vaccine hesitancy. As trust increases, vaccination hesitancy decreases and so does the time it takes people to vaccinate. The correlation is strongest for trust in police and interpersonal trust, and weakest for trust in media. By understanding how trust informs vaccination decision-making, we can better prepare for and respond to future pandemics and public health vaccination campaigns more generally.