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An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic

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  • Jeremy Greenwood
  • Philipp Kircher
  • Cezar Santos
  • Michèle Tertilt

Abstract

Twelve percent of the Malawian population is HIV infected. Eighteen percent of sexual encounters are casual. A condom is used a third of the time. To analyze the Malawian epidemic, a choice-theoretic general equilibrium search model is constructed. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk. The calibrated model is used to study several policy interventions; namely, ART, circumcision, better condoms, and the treatment of other STDs. The efficacy of public policy depends upon the induced behavioral changes and equilibrium effects. The framework complements the insights from epidemiological studies and small-scale field experiments.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy Greenwood & Philipp Kircher & Cezar Santos & Michèle Tertilt, 2019. "An Equilibrium Model of the African HIV/AIDS Epidemic," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2019_068, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2019_068
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ART; circumcision; condoms; disease transmission; epidemiological studies; HIV/AIDS; knowledge about HIV; Malawi; marriage; policy intervention; search; small field experiments; STDs; sex markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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