Optimal Treatment of an SIS Disease with Two Strains
This paper explores optimal treatment of an SIS (Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible) disease that has two strains with di¤erent infectivities. When we assume that neither eradication nor full infection are possible, it is shown that there are two categories of equilibria. First, there are two continua of interior equilibria characterised by a fixed, positive total level of infection, where both strands of the disease prevail. It is hypothesised that a Skiba curve of indi¤erence lies between them. Second, there are two sets of equilibria where one strand of the disease is eradicated asymptotically. The feasibility of equilibria depends on parameter assumptions; a combination of low natural rate of recovery and large di¤erence between infectivities leaves only a small proportion of equilibria as feasible. Simulations exploring the relationship between cost and optimal policy are carried out. There exists a parameter range such that, counter-intuitively, it is optimal to allow the high-infectivity strain of the disease to prevail, while asymptotically eradicating the low-infectivity strain. Within this parameter range, there is added benefit from policy flexibility. At higher costs, simulations of the interior equilibria demonstrate the existence of a Skiba curve. The curve delineates two regions, each of which has a clear optimal policy.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wagener, F. O. O., 2003. "Skiba points and heteroclinic bifurcations, with applications to the shallow lake system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1533-1561, July.
- Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1996.
"Rational Epidemics and Their Public Control,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 37(3), pages 603-624, August.
- Boulier Bryan L. & Datta Tejwant S. & Goldfarb Robert S, 2007. "Vaccination Externalities," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, May.
- Michael Kremer, 1996. "Integrating Behavioral Choice into Epidemiological Models of AIDS," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(2), pages 549-573.
- Emily Oster, 2007.
"HIV and Sexual Behavior Change: Why Not Africa?,"
NBER Working Papers
13049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geoffard, Pierre-Yves & Philipson, Tomas, 1997. "Disease Eradication: Private versus Public Vaccination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 222-230, March.
- Gersovitz, Mark & Hammer, Jeffrey S., 2001.
"The economic control of infectious diseases,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2607, The World Bank.
- Avner Ahituv & V. Joseph Hotz & Tomas Philipson, 1996. "The Responsiveness of the Demand for Condoms to the Local Prevalence of AIDS," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(4), pages 869-897.
- Goldman, Steven M. & Lightwood, James, 1996.
"Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment,"
Department of Economics, Working Paper Series
qt0r88q87t, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Goldman Steven Marc & Lightwood James, 2002. "Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-24, April.
- Steven M. Goldman and James Lightwood., 1996. "Cost Optimization in the SIS Model of Infectious Disease with Treatment," Economics Working Papers 96-245, University of California at Berkeley.
- Rowthorn, Robert & Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2012. "The Optimal Control of Infectious Diseases via Prevention and Treatment," CEPR Discussion Papers 8925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark Gersovitz & Jeffrey S. Hammer, 2003. "Infectious Diseases, Public Policy, and the Marriage of Economics and Epidemiology," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 129-157.
- Toxvaerd, Flavio, 2010. "Recurrent Infection and Externalities in Prevention," CEPR Discussion Papers 8112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Auld M. Christopher, 2006. "Estimating Behavioral Response to the AIDS Epidemic," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-29, April.
- Brito, Dagobert L. & Sheshinski, Eytan & Intriligator, Michael D., 1991. "Externalities and compulsary vaccinations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-90, June.
- Scott Barrett, 2003. "Global Disease Eradication," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 591-600, 04/05.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1229. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jake Dyer)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.