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Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict

  • Drago Bergholt

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Norwegian Business School (BI))

  • Päivi Lujala

    (Department of Economics & Department of Geography, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) & Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO)

Global warming is expected to make the climate warmer, wetter, and wilder. It is predicted that such climate change will increase the severity and frequency of climate-related disasters like flash floods, surges, cyclones, and severe storms. This article uses econometric methods to study the consequences of climate-induced natural disasters on economic growth, and how these disasters are linked to the onset of armed civil conflict either directly or via their impact on economic growth. The results show that climate-related natural disasters have a negative effect on growth and that the impact is considerable. The analysis of conflict onset shows that climate-related natural disasters do not increase the risk of armed conflict. This is also true when we instrument the change in GDP growth by climatic disasters. The result is robust to inclusion of country and time fixed effects, different estimation techniques, and various operationalization of the disasters measure, as well as for conflict incidence and war onset. These findings have two major implications: if climate change increases the frequency or makes weather-related natural disasters more severe, it is an economic concern for countries susceptible to these types of hazards. However, our results suggest – based on historical data – that more frequent and severe climate-related disasters will not lead to more armed conflicts through their effects on GDP growth.

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File URL: http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/49/1/147.abstract
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Article provided by Peace Research Institute Oslo in its journal Journal of Peace Research.

Volume (Year): 49 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 147-162

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Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:49:y:2012:i:1:p:147-162
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.prio.no/

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  1. Vally Koubi & Thomas Bernauer & Anna Kalbhenn & Gabriele Spilker, 2012. "Climate variability, economic growth, and civil conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 113-127, January.
  2. Devitt, Conor & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010. "Civil War, Climate Change and Development: A Scenario Study for Sub-Saharan Africa," Papers WP351, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  3. Haubrich, Joseph G. & Lo, Andrew W. (ed.), 2013. "Quantifying Systemic Risk," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226319285.
  4. Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2012. "Whither the weather? Climate change and conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 3-9, January.
  5. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 2013. "Quantifying Systemic Risk," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number haub10-1, August.
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