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Climate Change, Rice Crops and Violence. Evidence from Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Raul Caruso
  • Ilaria Petrarca
  • Roberto Ricciuti

Abstract

This paper adopts an instrumental variable approach to uncover the impact of variations in minimum temperature on emergence and severity of actual violence through the effect on food availability, captured by rice crops per capita. The link between increase in minimum temperature and rice crops is suggested by natural science literature. We use Indonesia as a case study over the period 1990-2003. Results show that an increase of the minimum temperature during the core month of the ‘wet planting season’, i.e. December, determines an increase in violence fuelled by the reduction in future rice production per capita.

Suggested Citation

  • Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Climate Change, Rice Crops and Violence. Evidence from Indonesia," CESifo Working Paper Series 4665, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4665
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    2. Roberto Ricciuti & Adelaide Baronchelli, 2018. "Climate change, rice production, and migration in Vietnamese households," WIDER Working Paper Series 86, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Charles Patrick MartinShields, 2017. "Conflict and development: Recent research advances and future agendas," WIDER Working Paper Series 178, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke & Edward Miguel, 2014. "Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to Buhaug et al," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 399-405, December.
    5. Sara Balestri & Raul Caruso, 2021. "Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia," Working Papers 1016, European Centre of Peace Science, Integration and Cooperation (CESPIC), Catholic University 'Our Lady of Good Counsel'.
    6. Adelaide Baronchelli & Roberto Ricciuti, 2018. "Climate change, rice production, and migration in Vietnamese households," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-86, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Sofia Castro Vargas, 2021. "Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los océanos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas," Documentos CEDE 19458, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    8. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Charles Patrick Martin-Shields, 2017. "Conflict and development: Recent research advances and future agendas," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-178, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Thiede, Brian C. & Gray, Clark, 2020. "Climate exposures and child undernutrition: Evidence from Indonesia," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    10. Andi Syah Putra & Guangji Tong & Didit Okta Pribadi, 2020. "Food Security Challenges in Rapidly Urbanizing Developing Countries: Insight from Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-20, November.
    11. Azis Iwan J. & Pratama Alvin, 2020. "Polarization and Local Conflicts in Post Decentralization Indonesia," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 26(2), pages 1-28, May.
    12. Sara Balestri & Raul Caruso, 2021. "Vulnerability to climate change and communal conflicts: uncovering pathways," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2103, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indonesia; climate change; minimum temperature; rainfall; food availability; paddy rice; rice crops; routine violence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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