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Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los océanos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas

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  • Sofia Castro Vargas

Abstract

Los ecosistemas marinos son particularmente vulnerables a cambios en las variables climáticas, haciendo que las actividades pesqueras sean muy riesgosas en los tiempos de la emergencia climática. De hecho, el colapso de algunas poblaciones de peces debido a incrementos en la temperatura del agua están empezando a hacerse evidentes. En Filipinas, las comunidades pesqueras rurales tienen relaciones altamente extorsivas con grupos armados, haciéndolas aún más vulnerables. Utilizando datos de temperatura del océano, conflicto y producción pesquera para los anos 2003-2018, este artículo examina el efecto de choques en la temperatura del océano en la violencia asociada al conflicto armado en Filipinas. Los resultados encontrados son concluyentes hacia un efecto positivo y estadísticamente significativo de los choques en la temperatura del océano sobre variables de conflicto armado como el número de eventos y las muertes asociadas a ellos. El efecto se da debido a los efectos negativos que dichos choques tienen sobre la producción agrícola y pesquera. Utilizando información sobre la dinámica del conflicto armado y la pesca para la Península de Zamboanga, este artículo presenta un estudio de caso que documenta los mecanismos detrás de la relación entre la producción pesquera y el conflicto armado. Los resultados proporcionan insumos para mejorar las políticas públicas relacionadas con las prácticas pesqueras sostenibles con el fin de reducir la vulnerabilidad de los pescadores al cambio climático en áreas de bajos ingresos y propensas a conflictos en los países en desarrollo.

Suggested Citation

  • Sofia Castro Vargas, 2021. "Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los océanos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas," Documentos CEDE 19458, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:019458
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cambio climático; conflicto armado; pesquerías; Filipinas; ecosistemas marinos.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q22 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Fishery
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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