IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/ajagec/v103y2021i1p211-231.html

Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Gatti
  • Kathy Baylis
  • Benjamin Crost

Abstract

This article provides evidence that rainfall shocks affect conflict through their effect on agricultural production and that irrigation infrastructure can mitigate this effect. Using data from Indonesia, we document that low rainfall during the agricultural season decreases agricultural production and increases civil conflict. We then show that the rainfall‐conflict link is attenuated by the presence of irrigation infrastructure in a district. This attenuating effect is specific to irrigation infrastructure; we find no evidence for a similar effect of hydropower dams. Our results are stronger for small‐scale conflicts over natural resources and popular justice than for conflicts over ethnic identity or ethnic separatism. These results are robust to controlling for interactions between rainfall and a wide range of socio‐economic and geographic district characteristics. We conclude that adaptive policies that mitigate the negative effects of weather shocks on agriculture may also prevent conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Gatti & Kathy Baylis & Benjamin Crost, 2021. "Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 211-231, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:103:y:2021:i:1:p:211-231
    DOI: 10.1002/ajae.12092
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/ajae.12092
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/ajae.12092?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hic:wpaper:205 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Sarsons, Heather, 2015. "Rainfall and conflict: A cautionary tale," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 62-72.
    3. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    4. Ore Koren, 2018. "Food Abundance and Violent Conflict in Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(4), pages 981-1006.
    5. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    6. Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.
    7. Jeroen Klomp & Erwin Bulte, 2013. "Climate change, weather shocks, and violent conflict: a critical look at the evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 63-78, November.
    8. Gerdis Wischnath & Halvard Buhaug, 2014. "On climate variability and civil war in Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 709-721, February.
    9. Molly Lipscomb & A. Mushfiq Mobarak & Tania Barham, 2013. "Development Effects of Electrification: Evidence from the Topographic Placement of Hydropower Plants in Brazil," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 200-231, April.
    10. Samuel Bazzi & Robert A. Blair & Christopher Blattman & Oeindrila Dube & Matthew Gudgeon & Richard Peck, 2022. "The Promise and Pitfalls of Conflict Prediction: Evidence from Colombia and Indonesia," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 764-779, October.
    11. Samuel Bazzi & Matthew Gudgeon, "undated". "Local Government Proliferation, Diversity, and Conflict," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-271, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    12. Lisa Cameron & Manisha Shah, 2014. "Can Mistargeting Destroy Social Capital and Stimulate Crime? Evidence from a Cash Transfer Program in Indonesia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(2), pages 381-415.
    13. Mariaflavia Harari & Eliana La Ferrara, 2018. "Conflict, Climate, and Cells: A Disaggregated Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 594-608, October.
    14. Edward Miguel, 2005. "Poverty and Witch Killing," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(4), pages 1153-1172.
    15. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke, 2014. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-55, March.
    16. Thiemo Fetzer, 2020. "Can Workfare Programs Moderate Conflict? Evidence from India," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(6), pages 3337-3375.
    17. Manisha Shah & Bryce Millett Steinberg, 2017. "Drought of Opportunities: Contemporaneous and Long-Term Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Human Capital," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(2), pages 527-561.
    18. Sebastian Axbard, 2016. "Income Opportunities and Sea Piracy in Indonesia: Evidence from Satellite Data," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 154-194, April.
    19. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    20. Marc F. Bellemare, 2015. "Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 1-21.
    21. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    22. Mirko Draca & Stephen Machin, 2015. "Crime and Economic Incentives," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 389-408, August.
    23. Salvatore Di Falco & Jérémy Laurent‐Lucchetti & Marcella Veronesi & Gunnar Kohlin, 2020. "Property Rights, Land Disputes and Water Scarcity: Empirical Evidence from Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 54-71, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. He, Xi & Chen, Zhenshan, 2022. "Weather, cropland expansion, and deforestation in Ethiopia," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Justin V Hastings & David Ubilava, 2025. "Agricultural roots of social conflict in Southeast Asia," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(6), pages 1714-1732, November.
    3. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, 2021. "Climate, Agriculture and Food," Papers 2105.12044, arXiv.org.
    4. Unfried, Kerstin & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Poser, Tilman, 2022. "Water scarcity and social conflict," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    5. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Klaus Deininger & Aparajita Goyal, 2024. "Land Policies for Resilient and Equitable Growth in Africa [Des politiques foncières pour une croissance résiliente et équitable en Afrique - Résumé analytique]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 41451, April.
    7. Sébastien Mary & Avraham Stoler, 2021. "Does agricultural trade liberalization increase obesity in developing countries?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 1326-1350, August.
    8. Pierre E. Biscaye, 2025. "Agricultural shocks and long-term conflict risk: Evidence from desert locust swarms," HiCN Working Papers 436, Households in Conflict Network.
    9. Manh Hung Do & Trung Thanh Nguyen, 2023. "Does irrigation development mitigate weather extremes’ impacts and reduce poverty? Evidence from rural Southeast Asia," TVSEP Working Papers wp-034, Leibniz Universitaet Hannover, Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade, Project TVSEP.
    10. Eugenie Dugoua & Jacob Moscona, 2025. "The Economics of Climate Innovation: Technology, Climate Policy, and the Clean Energy Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series 12267, CESifo.
    11. Marbler, Alexander, 2024. "Water scarcity and local economic activity: Spatial spillovers and the role of irrigation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Sakketa, Tekalign Gutu & Maggio, Dan & McPeak, John, 2025. "The protective role of index insurance in the experience of violent conflict: Evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    13. Eugenie Dugoua & Jacob Moscona, 2025. "The Economics of climate innovation: technology, climate policy, and the clean energy transition," CEP Discussion Papers dp2135, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    3. van Weezel, Stijn, 2020. "Local warming and violent armed conflict in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Stijn van Weezel, 2018. "Apocalypse now? - Climate change and war in Africa," Working Papers 201816, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    5. Lu, Yifan & Yamazaki, Satoshi, 2023. "Fish to fight: Does catching more fish increase conflicts in Indonesia?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    6. Eoin McGuirk & Marshall Burke, 2020. "The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3940-3997.
    7. Goyette, Jonathan & Smaoui, Maroua, 2022. "Low agricultural potential exacerbates the effect of temperature on civil conflicts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    8. Laville,Camille & Mandon,Pierre Jean-Claude, 2023. "Internal Conflicts and Shocks. A Narrative Meta-Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10315, The World Bank.
    9. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    10. Breckner, Miriam & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    11. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    12. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2021. "Murder nature weather and violent crime in Brazil," Discussion Papers 2021/2, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    13. Papaioannou, Kostadis J. & de Haas, Michiel, 2017. "Weather Shocks and Agricultural Commercialization in Colonial Tropical Africa: Did Cash Crops Alleviate Social Distress?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 346-365.
    14. Jonathan Goyette & Maroua Smaoui, 2019. "Civil armed conflicts: the impact of the interaction between climate change and agricultural potential," RIEEM Discussion Paper Series 1903, Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University.
    15. Unfried, Kerstin & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Poser, Tilman, 2022. "Water scarcity and social conflict," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    16. Kostadis J. Papaioannou & Michiel de Haas, 2015. "Climate shocks, cash crops and resilience: Evidence from colonial tropical Africa," Working Papers 0076, Utrecht University, Centre for Global Economic History.
    17. Etienne Inedit Blaise Tsomb Tsomb & Mermoz Homer III Nsoga Nsoga & Cyrille Dominick Bitting, 2024. "Climate change vulnerability and conflicts in Africa: evidence from the migrations channel," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18811-18854, July.
    18. Sofia Castro Vargas, 2021. "Subiendo la temperatura: el calentamiento de los oc√©anos y su efecto en el conflicto armado en Filipinas," Documentos CEDE 19458, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    19. Jonathan Goyette & Maroua Smaoui, 2019. "Civil armed conflicts: the impact of the interaction between climate change and agricultural potential," Cahiers de recherche 19-02, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    20. David Ubilava & Justin V. Hastings & Kadir Atalay, 2023. "Agricultural windfalls and the seasonality of political violence in Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1309-1332, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:ajagec:v:103:y:2021:i:1:p:211-231. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://doi.org/10.1111/(ISSN)1467-8276 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.