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The Protective Role of Index Insurance in the Experience of Violent Conflict: Evidence from Ethiopia

Author

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  • Sakketa, Tekalign Gutu
  • Maggio, Dan
  • McPeak, John

Abstract

Droughts are among the leading causes of livestock mortality and conflict among pastoralist populations in East Africa. To foster climate resiliency in these populations, Index Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI) products have become popular. These products, which allow herders to hedge climate risk, often utilize remote-sensed data to trigger indemnity payouts, thus ameliorating moral hazard issues associated with standard insurance products. We study how one such program, implemented in southern Ethiopia, impacted the experience of violent conflict among participating households. Using a causal mediation analysis, we show first that there is a strong link between rangeland conditions and violent conflict; a one- unit decrease in a standardized version of the normalized difference vegetation index (zNDVI) in the previous season is associated with a 0.3-3 percentage point increase in the likelihood of conflict exposure. Within the mediation framework, we leverage a randomized encouragement experiment and show that insurance uptake reduces the conflict risk created by poor rangeland conditions by between 17 and 50 percent. Our results suggest that social protection programs, particularly index insurance programs, may act as a protective factor in areas with complex risk profiles, where households are exposed to both climatic and conflict risks, which themselves may interact.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakketa, Tekalign Gutu & Maggio, Dan & McPeak, John, 2024. "The Protective Role of Index Insurance in the Experience of Violent Conflict: Evidence from Ethiopia," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344274, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344274
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.344274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eoin F McGuirk & Nathan Nunn, 2025. "Transhumant Pastoralism, Climate Change, and Conflict in Africa," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 92(1), pages 404-441.
    2. Mobarak, A. Mushfiq & Rosenzweig, Mark, 2012. "Selling Formal Insurance to the Informally Insured," Working Papers 97, Yale University, Department of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nathaniel Jensen & Jose Lopez-Rivas & Karlijn Morsink & Emma Rikken, 2025. "Weathering Conflict: The Effect of Resource Shocks on Livestock Raids," CSAE Working Paper Series 2025-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.

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    Keywords

    Agricultural and Food Policy; Environmental Economics and Policy; Livestock Production/Industries;
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