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The role of conflict for optimal climate and immigration policy

Author

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  • Prieur, Fabien
  • Schumacher, Ingmar

Abstract

In this article we investigate the role that internal and external conflict plays for optimal climate and immigration policy. Reviewing the empirical literature, we put forward five theses regarding the link between climate change, migration, and conflict. Based on these theses, we then develop a theoretical model in which we take the perspective of the North who unilaterally chooses the number of immigrants from a pool of potential migrants that is endogenously determined by the extent of climate change. Accepting these migrants allows increases in local production which not only increases climate change but also gives rise to internal conflicts. In addition, those potential migrants that want to move due to climate change but that are not allowed to immigrate may induce external conflict. While we show that the external and internal conflict play a significant yet decisively different role, it is the co-existence of both conflicts that makes policy making difficult. Considering only one conflict induces significant immigration but no mitigation. Allowing for both types of conflict, then depending on parameters, either a steady state without immigration but with mitigation will be optimal, or a steady state with a larger number of immigrants but less mitigation. Furthermore, we find the possibility of Skiba points, signaling that optimal policy depends on initial conditions, too. During transition we examine the substitutability and complementarity between the mitigation and immigration policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Prieur, Fabien & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2016. "The role of conflict for optimal climate and immigration policy," TSE Working Papers 16-663, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:30519
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Lanz & Simon Dietz & Tim Swanson, 2016. "Economic growth and agricultural land conversion under uncertain productivity improvements in agriculture," FOODSECURE Working papers 53, LEI Wageningen UR.
    2. Valentina Bosetti & Cristina Cattaneo & Giovanni Peri, 2018. "Should they stay or should they go? Climate Migrants and Local Conflicts," NBER Working Papers 24447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:oup:ajagec:v:100:y:2018:i:2:p:545-569. is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; immigration; conflict; mitigation;

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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