IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v117y2013i3p599-611.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Developments in modelling of climate change-related migration

Author

Listed:
  • Robert McLeman

Abstract

Climatic variability and change is known to influence human migration patterns. Researchers increasingly see migration as one of a range of potential means by which populations may adapt to the future impacts of climate change. Modelling of climate change-related migration is a relatively new undertaking. This article provides a brief overview of current scholarly understanding of climate change-related migration processes, identifies recent developments and current challenges in modelling, and suggests opportunities for enhancing future modelling efforts. Given the lack of reliable global datasets on environmentally related migration, regional and sub-regional modelling of climate change effects on migration is where most developments are likely to emerge in the short-run. Such models, which can draw on a range of GIS-based and statistical approaches, at present make use of fairly general assumptions about migration behavior, and therefore best serve as gauges of potential trends and migration hotspots, and not as absolute predictors of future migrant numbers. Models will become increasingly sophisticated as scholarly understanding of underlying factors influencing migration behavior, such as risk perception, social networks, and labor market connections, is improved. Obtaining reliable data for use in such models will remain a significant challenge in coming years. International policymakers seeking to expand the predictive capacity of models are encouraged to use existing mechanisms such as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to develop protocols and mechanisms for collecting and sharing reliable data on climate-related population movements. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Robert McLeman, 2013. "Developments in modelling of climate change-related migration," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 599-611, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:117:y:2013:i:3:p:599-611
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0578-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-012-0578-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-012-0578-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gregory Marchildon & Suren Kulshreshtha & Elaine Wheaton & Dave Sauchyn, 2008. "Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 45(3), pages 391-411, June.
    2. Luca Marchiori & Ingmar Schumacher, 2011. "When nature rebels: international migration, climate change, and inequality," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 24(2), pages 569-600, April.
    3. Olga Wilhelmi & Donald Wilhite, 2002. "Assessing Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: A Nebraska Case Study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 25(1), pages 37-58, January.
    4. Barry Smit & Mark Skinner, 2002. "Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 85-114, March.
    5. Kate Hampshire, 2002. "Fulani on the Move: Seasonal Economic Migration in the Sahel as a Social Process," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 15-36.
    6. Jochen Hinkel & Robert Nicholls & Athanasios Vafeidis & Richard Tol & Thaleia Avagianou, 2010. "Assessing risk of and adaptation to sea-level rise in the European Union: an application of DIVA," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 15(7), pages 703-719, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rebecca Parrish & Tim Colbourn & Paolo Lauriola & Giovanni Leonardi & Shakoor Hajat & Ariana Zeka, 2020. "A Critical Analysis of the Drivers of Human Migration Patterns in the Presence of Climate Change: A New Conceptual Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-20, August.
    2. Fabien Prieur & Ingmar Schumacher, 2016. "The role of conflict for optimal climate and immigration policy," Working Papers 2016.27, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    3. Linjun Lu & Qing-Chang Lu & ABM Sertajur Rahman, 2015. "Residence and Job Location Change Choice Behavior under Flooding and Cyclone Impacts in Bangladesh," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(9), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Robalino, Juan & Jimenez, José & Chacón, Adriana, 2015. "The Effect of Hydro-Meteorological Emergencies on Internal Migration," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 438-448.
    5. Heman D. Lohano, "undated". "Weather Variability, Agricultural Revenues and Internal Migration: Evidence from Pakistan," Working papers 99, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    6. Sun Yi & Xu Chengjin & Zhang Hailing & Liu Changxin & Ding Guanqun & Wang Zheng, 2019. "Migration impact on China’s population dividing line driven by hybrid features: perspectives of climate change and wage gap," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 431-464, June.
    7. Kelsea B. Best & Jonathan M. Gilligan & Hiba Baroud & Amanda R. Carrico & Katharine M. Donato & Brooke A. Ackerly & Bishawjit Mallick, 2021. "Random forest analysis of two household surveys can identify important predictors of migration in Bangladesh," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 77-100, May.
    8. Calogero Carletto & Jennica Larrison & Çaglar Özden, 2014. "Informing migration policies: a data primer," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 2, pages 9-41, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.T., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    10. E. V. Petracou & A. Xepapadeas & A. N. Yannacopoulos, 2017. "Climate Change and Environmentally Induced Migration Across Regions: Cooperative and Non-cooperative Solutions," Homo Oeconomicus: Journal of Behavioral and Institutional Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 137-164, November.
    11. Fabien Prieur & Ingmar Schumacher, 2022. "The impact of conflicts on climate and migration policy," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 24(4), pages 653-681, August.
    12. Trond G. Husby & Elco E. Koks, 2017. "Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 287-305, May.
    13. Merve Suzan ILIK BİLBEN, 2018. "Antropojenik İklim Değişikliği Bağlamında Göç Tartışmaları," Journal of Social Policy Conferences, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 0(75), pages 237-268, December.
    14. Rising, James A. & Taylor, Charlotte & Ives, Matthew C. & Ward, Robert E.t., 2022. "Challenges and innovations in the economic evaluation of the risks of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114941, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Delazeri, Linda Márcia Mendes & Cunha, Dênis Antônio da & Couto-Santos, Fabiana Rita, 2018. "Climate change and urbanization: evidence from the Semi-Arid region of Brazil," Revista Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos, Associação Brasileira de Estudos Regionais e Urbanos (ABER), vol. 12(2), pages 129-154.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    2. Nick Middleton & Utchang Kang, 2017. "Sand and Dust Storms: Impact Mitigation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-22, June.
    3. Benjamin Bathfield & Pierre Gasselin & Rémy Vandame & Santiago López-Ridaura & Luís García Barrios, 2010. "Adaptation de la gestion technique des producteurs de café et de miel face aux variations de prix au Guatemala : concepts et méthodes," Post-Print hal-00783500, HAL.
    4. Nomfundo Sibiya & Mikateko Sithole & Lindelani Mudau & Mulala Danny Simatele, 2022. "Empowering the Voiceless: Securing the Participation of Marginalised Groups in Climate Change Governance in South Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Jackson, T.M. & Hanjra, Munir A. & Khan, S. & Hafeez, M.M., 2011. "Building a climate resilient farm: A risk based approach for understanding water, energy and emissions in irrigated agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 104(9), pages 729-745.
    6. Hong Wu & Donald Wilhite, 2004. "An Operational Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment Model for Nebraska, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 33(1), pages 1-21, September.
    7. Konseiga, Adama, 2006. "Household Migration Decisions as Survival Strategy: The Case of Burkina Faso," Discussion Papers 276269, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    8. Shamsuddin Shahid & Houshang Behrawan, 2008. "Drought risk assessment in the western part of Bangladesh," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(3), pages 391-413, September.
    9. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Qiang Zhang & Jinsong Wang & Yubi Yao & Wei Wang, 2016. "Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1605-1634, September.
    10. Burhan Ozkan & Handan Akcaoz, 2002. "Impacts of climate factors on yields for selected crops in the Southern Turkey," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 367-380, December.
    11. Camacho, Carmen & Pérez-Barahona, Agustín, 2015. "Land use dynamics and the environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 96-118.
    12. Yoshito Takasaki, 2013. "Do natural disasters beget fraud victimization?: Unrealized coping through labor migration among the poor," Tsukuba Economics Working Papers 2013-002, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Tsukuba.
    13. Daniel Scott & Geoff McBoyle, 2007. "Climate change adaptation in the ski industry," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 12(8), pages 1411-1431, October.
    14. Marion Borderon & Patrick Sakdapolrak & Raya Muttarak & Endale Kebede & Raffaella Pagogna & Eva Sporer, 2019. "Migration influenced by environmental change in Africa: A systematic review of empirical evidence," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(18), pages 491-544.
    15. Weihua Dong & Zhao Liu & Lijie Zhang & Qiuhong Tang & Hua Liao & Xian'en Li, 2014. "Assessing Heat Health Risk for Sustainability in Beijing’s Urban Heat Island," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(10), pages 1-24, October.
    16. Trnka, Miroslav & Vizina, Adam & Hanel, Martin & Balek, Jan & Fischer, Milan & Hlavinka, Petr & Semerádová, Daniela & Štěpánek, Petr & Zahradníček, Pavel & Skalák, Petr & Eitzinger, Josef & Dubrovský,, 2022. "Increasing available water capacity as a factor for increasing drought resilience or potential conflict over water resources under present and future climate conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    17. Itziar González Tánago & Julia Urquijo & Veit Blauhut & Fermín Villarroya & Lucia De Stefano, 2016. "Learning from experience: a systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(2), pages 951-973, January.
    18. Sergio Vicente-Serrano, 2007. "Evaluating the Impact of Drought Using Remote Sensing in a Mediterranean, Semi-arid Region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(1), pages 173-208, January.
    19. Maria Fabrizia Clemente, 2022. "The Future Impacts of ESL Events in Euro-Mediterranean Coastal Cities: The Coast-RiskBySea Model to Assess the Potential Economic Damages in Naples, Marseille and Barcelona," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.
    20. Bai, Junfei & Xu, Zhigang & Qiu, Huanguang & Liu, Haiyan, 2015. "Optimising seed portfolios to cope ex ante with risks from bad weather: evidence from a recent maize farmer survey in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(2), April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:117:y:2013:i:3:p:599-611. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.