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Too little too late : welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Skoufias, Emmanuel
  • Essama-Nssah, B.
  • Katayama, Roy S.

Abstract

The authors use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impact of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia. In particular, they consider two shocks: (i) a delay in the onset of monsoon and (ii) a significant shortfall in the amount of rain in the 90 day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, the analysis finds that a delay in the monsoon onset does not have a significant impact on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Rice farm households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks at the expense of lower nonfood expenditures per capita. The authors use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the welfare impact of this type of shock. Access to credit and public works projects in communities were among the programs with the strongest moderating effects. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Skoufias, Emmanuel & Essama-Nssah, B. & Katayama, Roy S., 2011. "Too little too late : welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5615, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5615
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2004. "Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty : a synthesis of the evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, Mexico and Russia," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 29141, The World Bank.
    2. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
    3. Hanan G. Jacoby & Emmanuel Skoufias, 1997. "Risk, Financial Markets, and Human Capital in a Developing Country," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 64(3), pages 311-335.
    4. Sumarto, Sudarno & Suryahadi, Asep & Pritchett, Lant, 2003. "Safety Nets or Safety Ropes? Dynamic Benefit Incidence of Two Crisis Programs in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1257-1277, July.
    5. Hoddinott, John & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2003. "Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 29138, The World Bank.
    6. Korkeala, Outi & Newhouse, David & Duarte, Mafalda, 2009. "Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5070, The World Bank.
    7. Walter Falcon & Rosamond Naylor & Whitney Smith & Marshall Burke & Ellen McCullough, 2004. "Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 355-377.
    8. Neil Adger, W., 1999. "Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-269, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomoki Fujii, 2016. "Climate change and vulnerability to poverty: an empirical investigation in rural Indonesia," Chapters, in: Jacques Silber & Guanghua Wan (ed.),The Asian ‘Poverty Miracle’, chapter 5, pages 118-146, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Noy, Ilan & Karim, Azreen, 2013. "Poverty, inequality and natural disasters – A survey," Working Paper Series 2974, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Aditya Kusuma & Bethanna Jackson & Ilan Noy, 2018. "A viable and cost-effective weather index insurance for rice in Indonesia," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 43(2), pages 186-218, September.
    4. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2014. "Poverty and natural disasters: A meta-analysis," Working Paper Series 3234, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Sirikarn Lertamphainont & Robert Sparrow, 2016. "The Economic Impacts of Extreme Rainfall Events on Farming Households: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 45, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Oct 2016.
    6. Dacuycuy, Connie B., 2016. "Weather Events and Welfare in the Philippine Households," Discussion Papers DP 2016-34, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    7. Connie B. Dacuycuy, 2019. "Energy consumption, weather fluctuation, and household composition in the Philippines," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 380-394.
    8. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Rabassa, Mariano & Olivieri, Sergio & Brahmbhatt, Milan, 2011. "The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 51, pages 1-5, March.
    9. Dacuycuy, Connie B., 2016. "Weather Events and Welfare in the Philippine Households," Research Paper Series DP 2016-34, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    10. World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13039, The World Bank.
    11. Karim, Azreen, 2016. "The household response to persistent natural disasters: Evidence from Bangladesh," Working Paper Series 4968, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Azreen Karim & Ilan Noy, 2016. "Poverty And Natural Disasters — A Qualitative Survey Of The Empirical Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-36, March.
    13. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Climate Change, Rice Crops and Violence. Evidence from Indonesia," CESifo Working Paper Series 4665, CESifo.
    14. Dacuycuy, Connie B., 2017. "Energy Consumption, Weather Variability, and Gender in the Philippines: A Discrete/Continuous Approach," Discussion Papers DP 2017-06, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    15. Saenz, Mayra A., 2020. "Extreme Weather and Food Security: The Case of Malawi," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304626, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Sellers, Samuel & Gray, Clark, 2019. "Climate shocks constrain human fertility in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 357-369.
    17. Barbora Sedova & Matthias Kalkuhl & Robert Mendelsohn, 2020. "Distributional Impacts of Weather and Climate in Rural India," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 5-44, April.
    18. Connie Bayudan-Dacuycuy & Lora Kryz Baje, 2019. "When It Rains, It Pours? Analyzing the Rainfall Shocks-Poverty Nexus in the Philippines," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 67-93, August.
    19. Karim, Azreen, 2018. "The Household Response to Persistent Natural Disasters: Evidence from Bangladesh," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 40-59.
    20. Elsa Valli, 2017. "Essays on social protection," Economics PhD Theses 1017, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Science of Climate Change; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Housing&Human Habitats; Rural Poverty Reduction; Regional Economic Development;

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