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Using El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Data To Improve Food Policy Planning In Indonesia


  • Rosamond Naylor
  • Walter Falcon
  • Nikolas Wada
  • Daniel Rochberg


Despite the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (wet) season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Nino years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Nino years than La Nina years. Indonesia's paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every 1°C change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosamond Naylor & Walter Falcon & Nikolas Wada & Daniel Rochberg, 2002. "Using El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Data To Improve Food Policy Planning In Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 75-91.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:38:y:2002:i:1:p:75-91
    DOI: 10.1080/000749102753620293

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    Cited by:

    1. Tomoki Fujii, 2016. "Climate change and vulnerability to poverty: an empirical investigation in rural Indonesia," Chapters,in: The Asian ‘Poverty Miracle’, chapter 5, pages 118-146 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. You, Liangzhi, 2012. "A tale of two countries: Spatial and temporal patterns of rice productivity in China and Brazil," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 690-703.
    3. Jonatan A. Lassa & Allen Yu-Hung Lai & Tian Goh, 2016. "Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 19-33, November.
    4. World Bank, 2010. "Climate Change and Economic Policies in APEC Economies : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2948, The World Bank.
    5. Yamauchi, Futoshi & Sumaryanto, Sony & Dewina, Reno, 2010. "Climate Change, Perceptions and the Heterogeneity of Adaptation and Rice Productivity: Evidence from Indonesian Villages," Working Papers 13, JICA Research Institute.
    6. World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13039, The World Bank.

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