IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/bindes/v38y2002i1p75-91.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Data To Improve Food Policy Planning In Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Rosamond Naylor
  • Walter Falcon
  • Nikolas Wada
  • Daniel Rochberg

Abstract

Despite the impact of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on climate in the Indo-Pacific region, models linking ENSO-based climate variability to Indonesian cereal production are not well developed. This study measures connections among sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), rainfall, and Indonesian rice and corn production from 1971 to 1998. Year-to-year August SSTA fluctuations explain about half the interannual variance in paddy production during the main (wet) season. These effects are cumulative for rice: during strong El Nino years, wet season production shortfalls are not made up subsequently. For corn, the cumulative area sown is actually higher in El Nino years than La Nina years. Indonesia's paddy production varies on average by 1.4 million tons for every 1°C change in August SSTAs. The paper illustrates how an SSTA model might assist policy makers with budgetary processes, and private sector cereal traders with framing production expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosamond Naylor & Walter Falcon & Nikolas Wada & Daniel Rochberg, 2002. "Using El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Data To Improve Food Policy Planning In Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 75-91.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:38:y:2002:i:1:p:75-91
    DOI: 10.1080/000749102753620293
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/000749102753620293
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tomoki Fujii, 2016. "Climate change and vulnerability to poverty: an empirical investigation in rural Indonesia," Chapters,in: The Asian ‘Poverty Miracle’, chapter 5, pages 118-146 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. You, Liangzhi, 2012. "A tale of two countries: Spatial and temporal patterns of rice productivity in China and Brazil," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 690-703.
    3. Jonatan A. Lassa & Allen Yu-Hung Lai & Tian Goh, 2016. "Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 19-33, November.
    4. World Bank, 2010. "Climate Change and Economic Policies in APEC Economies : Synthesis Report," World Bank Other Operational Studies 2948, The World Bank.
    5. Yamauchi, Futoshi & Sumaryanto, Sony & Dewina, Reno, 2010. "Climate Change, Perceptions and the Heterogeneity of Adaptation and Rice Productivity: Evidence from Indonesian Villages," Working Papers 13, JICA Research Institute.
    6. World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13039, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:38:y:2002:i:1:p:75-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Chris Longhurst). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CBIE20 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.