IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v23y2001i2p171-196.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Murphy
  • Richard Washington
  • Thomas Downing
  • Randall Martin
  • Gina Ziervogel
  • Anthony Preston
  • Martin Todd
  • Ruth Butterfield
  • Jim Briden

Abstract

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Murphy & Richard Washington & Thomas Downing & Randall Martin & Gina Ziervogel & Anthony Preston & Martin Todd & Ruth Butterfield & Jim Briden, 2001. "Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 171-196, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:23:y:2001:i:2:p:171-196
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1011160904414
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1023/A:1011160904414
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1023/A:1011160904414?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. A. Pfaff & K. Broad & M. Glantz, 1999. "Who benefits from climate forecasts?," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6721), pages 645-646, February.
    2. Katz,Richard W. & Murphy,Allan H. (ed.), 1997. "Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521434201.
    3. M. J. Rodwell & D. P. Rowell & C. K. Folland, 1999. "Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 398(6725), pages 320-323, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sardorbek Musayev & Jonathan Mellor & Tara Walsh & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2021. "Development of an Agent-Based Model for Weather Forecast Information Exchange in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, April.
    2. David Hui & Karen Shum & Ji Chen & Shyh-Chin Chen & Jack Ritchie & John Roads, 2007. "Case studies of seasonal rainfall forecasts for Hong Kong and its vicinity using a regional climate model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(1), pages 193-207, July.
    3. Gina Ziervogel & Sukaina Bharwani & Thomas E. Downing, 2006. "Adapting to climate variability: Pumpkins, people and policy," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 294-305, November.
    4. Kaiza R. Kaganzi & Aida Cuni-Sanchez & Fatuma Mcharazo & Emanuel H. Martin & Robert A. Marchant & Jessica P. R. Thorn, 2021. "Local Perceptions of Climate Change and Adaptation Responses from Two Mountain Regions in Tanzania," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Carla Roncoli & Christine Jost & Paul Kirshen & Moussa Sanon & Keith Ingram & Mark Woodin & Léopold Somé & Frédéric Ouattara & Bienvenue Sanfo & Ciriaque Sia & Pascal Yaka & Gerrit Hoogenboom, 2009. "From accessing to assessing forecasts: an end-to-end study of participatory climate forecast dissemination in Burkina Faso (West Africa)," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 92(3), pages 433-460, February.
    6. Osgood, Daniel E. & Suarez, Pablo & Hansen, James & Carriquiry, Miguel & Mishra, Ashok, 2008. "Integrating seasonal forecasts and insurance for adaptation among subsistence farmers : the case of Malawi," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4651, The World Bank.
    7. David Marcolino Nielsen & Marcio Cataldi & André Luiz Belém & Ana Luiza Spadano Albuquerque, 2016. "Local indices for the South American monsoon system and its impacts on Southeast Brazilian precipitation patterns," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(2), pages 909-928, September.
    8. Ziervogel, Gina & Bithell, Mike & Washington, Richard & Downing, Tom, 2005. "Agent-based social simulation: a method for assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecast applications among smallholder farmers," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 1-26, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cao, Juan & Zhang, Zhao & Tao, Fulu & Chen, Yi & Luo, Xiangzhong & Xie, Jun, 2023. "Forecasting global crop yields based on El Nino Southern Oscillation early signals," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    2. Sardorbek Musayev & Jonathan Mellor & Tara Walsh & Emmanouil Anagnostou, 2021. "Development of an Agent-Based Model for Weather Forecast Information Exchange in Rural Area of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Sanchirico, James, 2004. "A Social Scientist's Perspective on the Potential Benefits of the Census of Marine Life," RFF Working Paper Series dp-04-23-rev, Resources for the Future.
    4. Shrader, Jeffrey, 2014. "Forecasts and Adaptation," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170626, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Sarah Alexander & Ezana Atsbeha & Selam Negatu & Kristen Kirksey & Dominique Brossard & Elizabeth Holzer & Paul Block, 2020. "Development of an interdisciplinary, multi-method approach to seasonal climate forecast communication at the local scale," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 2021-2042, October.
    6. Ashley R. Coles & Christopher A. Scott, 2009. "Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and variability in semi‐arid rural southeastern Arizona, USA," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 297-309, November.
    7. Mi-Kyung Sung & Soon-Il An & Jongsoo Shin & Jae-Heung Park & Young-Min Yang & Hyo-Jeong Kim & Minhee Chang, 2023. "Ocean fronts as decadal thermostats modulating continental warming hiatus," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Miguel A. Carriquiry & Walter E. Baethgen, 2016. "Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Agricultural Risk Management: Implications for Insurance Design," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 16-03, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    9. Sheriff, Glenn & Osgood, Daniel E., 2005. "Shepherd's Dilemma," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19340, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Phillips, J. G. & Deane, D. & Unganai, L. & Chimeli, A., 2002. "Implications of farm-level response to seasonal climate forecasts for aggregate grain production in Zimbabwe," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 351-369, December.
    11. Neville Nicholls, 2001. "Atmospheric and Climatic Hazards: Improved Monitoring and Prediction for Disaster Mitigation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 137-155, March.
    12. M. Lorenzo & J. Taboada & I. Iglesias & M. Gómez-Gesteira, 2011. "Predictability of the spring rainfall in Northwestern Iberian Peninsula from sea surfaces temperature of ENSO areas," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 329-341, August.
    13. Jean-Louis Pinault, 2012. "Global warming and rainfall oscillation in the 5–10 yr band in Western Europe and Eastern North America," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(3), pages 621-650, October.
    14. Carla Roncoli & Benjamin Orlove & Merit Kabugo & Milton Waiswa, 2011. "Cultural styles of participation in farmers’ discussions of seasonal climate forecasts in Uganda," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 28(1), pages 123-138, February.
    15. Sedjo, Roger & Jagger, Pamela & White, William, 1999. "El Niño, Ice Storms, and the Market for Residential Fuelwood in Eastern Canada and the Northeastern U.S," RFF Working Paper Series dp-99-44, Resources for the Future.
    16. Walter Falcon & Rosamond Naylor & Whitney Smith & Marshall Burke & Ellen McCullough, 2004. "Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 355-377.
    17. Jagger, Pamela & White, William & Sedjo, Roger A., 1999. "El Nino, Ice Storms, and the Market for Residential Fuelwood in Eastern Canada and the Northeastern U.S," Discussion Papers 10535, Resources for the Future.
    18. Hansen, James W., 2002. "Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 309-330, December.
    19. Ramos, V. & López, M. & Taveira-Pinto, F. & Rosa-Santos, P., 2017. "Influence of the wave climate seasonality on the performance of a wave energy converter: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 303-316.
    20. Antony Millner, 2012. "Climate prediction for adaptation: Who needs what?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(1), pages 143-167, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:23:y:2001:i:2:p:171-196. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.