IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/bindes/v48y2012i3p351-368.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Emmanuel Skoufias
  • Roy S. Katayama
  • B. Essama-Nssah

Abstract

We use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impacts in rural Indonesia of two types of shock: a delay in monsoon onset; and a significant shortfall in rain during the 90-day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, we find that a delay in monsoon onset does not have a significant effect on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Such households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks, but at the expense of their non-food expenditure. We also use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the impact of this type of shock. We find that access to credit and public works projects has the strongest moderating effect. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Skoufias & Roy S. Katayama & B. Essama-Nssah, 2012. "Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 351-368, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:48:y:2012:i:3:p:351-368
    DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2012.728638
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00074918.2012.728638
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00074918.2012.728638?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2004. "Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty : a synthesis of the evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, Mexico and Russia," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 29141, The World Bank.
    2. Sharon Maccini & Dean Yang, 2009. "Under the Weather: Health, Schooling, and Economic Consequences of Early-Life Rainfall," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1006-1026, June.
    3. Neil Adger, W., 1999. "Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 249-269, February.
    4. Hanan G. Jacoby & Emmanuel Skoufias, 1997. "Risk, Financial Markets, and Human Capital in a Developing Country," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(3), pages 311-335.
    5. Sumarto, Sudarno & Suryahadi, Asep & Pritchett, Lant, 2003. "Safety Nets or Safety Ropes? Dynamic Benefit Incidence of Two Crisis Programs in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1257-1277, July.
    6. Hoddinott, John & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2003. "Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 29138, The World Bank.
    7. Rosamond Naylor & Walter Falcon & Nikolas Wada & Daniel Rochberg, 2002. "Using El Nino-Southern Oscillation Climate Data To Improve Food Policy Planning In Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(1), pages 75-91.
    8. Korkeala, Outi & Newhouse, David & Duarte, Mafalda, 2009. "Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5070, The World Bank.
    9. Walter Falcon & Rosamond Naylor & Whitney Smith & Marshall Burke & Ellen McCullough, 2004. "Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 355-377.
    10. Pitt, Mark M & Rosenzweig, Mark R & Gibbons, Donna M, 1993. "The Determinants and Consequences of the Placement of Government Programs in Indonesia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 7(3), pages 319-348, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Publications - Reports 13039, The World Bank Group.
    2. Tomoki Fujii, 2016. "Climate change and vulnerability to poverty: an empirical investigation in rural Indonesia," Chapters, in: Jacques Silber & Guanghua Wan (ed.), The Asian ‘Poverty Miracle’, chapter 5, pages 118-146, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Kurosaki, Takashi & 黒崎, 卓, 2010. "Targeting the Vulnerable and the Choice of Vulnerability Measures: Review and Application to Pakistan," PRIMCED Discussion Paper Series 1, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Behrman, Jere R., 2010. "Investment in Education Inputs and Incentives," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4883-4975, Elsevier.
    5. Korkeala, Outi & Newhouse, David & Duarte, Mafalda, 2009. "Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5070, The World Bank.
    6. Denis Cogneau & Rémi Jedwab, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Child Outcomes: The 1990 Cocoa Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(3), pages 507-534.
    7. Isaac B. Oluwatayo, 2004. "Income Risk and Welfare Status of Rural Households in Nigeria: Ekiti State as a Test Case," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-61, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Jonathan Colmer, 2013. "Climate Variability, Child Labour and Schooling: Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margin," GRI Working Papers 132, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    9. Francesca Marchetta & David E Sahn & Luca Tiberti, 2019. "The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1203-1227.
    10. Nillesen, Eleonora & Verwim, Philip, 2010. "A Phoenix in Flames? Portfolio Choice and Violence in Civil War in Rural Burundi," WIDER Working Paper Series 044, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Osawe, Osayanmon Wellington, 2013. "Livelihood Vulnerability and Migration Decision Making Nexus: The Case of Rural Farm Households in Nigeria," 2013 Fourth International Conference, September 22-25, 2013, Hammamet, Tunisia 161628, African Association of Agricultural Economists (AAAE).
    12. Castells-Quintana, David & del Pilar Lopez-Uribe, Maria & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2018. "A review of adaptation to climate change through a development economics lens," Working Papers 309605, National University of Ireland, Galway, Socio-Economic Marine Research Unit.
    13. Shoji, Masahiro, 2020. "Early-Life Circumstances and Adult Locus of Control: Evidence from 46 Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 99987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Arouri, Mohamed & Nguyen, Cuong & Youssef, Adel Ben, 2015. "Natural Disasters, Household Welfare, and Resilience: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 59-77.
    15. Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Trade openness and vulnerability to poverty: Vietnam in the long-run (1992-2008)," Working Paper Series 3512, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    16. Valeria Groppo & Kati Kraehnert, 2017. "The impact of extreme weather events on education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 433-472, April.
    17. Sen, Kritika & Villa, Kira M., 2022. "Rainfall shocks and adolescent school-work transition: Evidence from rural South Africa," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322383, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Piya, Luni & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Joshi, Niraj Prakash, 2012. "Vulnerability of rural households to climate change and extremes: Analysis of Chepang households in the Mid-Hills of Nepal," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126191, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Orazem, Peter F. & Glewwe, Paul & Patrinos, Harry, 2007. "The Benefits and Costs of Alternative Strategies to Improve Educational Outcomes," Working Papers 7352, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    20. Md. Shafiul Azam & Katsushi S. Imai, 2012. "Measuring Households' Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks – the case of Bangladesh," Discussion Paper Series DP2012-02, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:48:y:2012:i:3:p:351-368. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CBIE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.