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Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia

Author

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  • Emmanuel Skoufias
  • Roy S. Katayama
  • B. Essama-Nssah

Abstract

We use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impacts in rural Indonesia of two types of shock: a delay in monsoon onset; and a significant shortfall in rain during the 90-day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, we find that a delay in monsoon onset does not have a significant effect on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Such households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks, but at the expense of their non-food expenditure. We also use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the impact of this type of shock. We find that access to credit and public works projects has the strongest moderating effect. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Skoufias & Roy S. Katayama & B. Essama-Nssah, 2012. "Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(3), pages 351-368, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:bindes:v:48:y:2012:i:3:p:351-368
    DOI: 10.1080/00074918.2012.728638
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Quisumbing, Agnes R., 2004. "Consumption insurance and vulnerability to poverty : a synthesis of the evidence from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, Mexico and Russia," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 29141, The World Bank.
    2. Sumarto, Sudarno & Suryahadi, Asep & Pritchett, Lant, 2003. "Safety Nets or Safety Ropes? Dynamic Benefit Incidence of Two Crisis Programs in Indonesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1257-1277, July.
    3. Hoddinott, John & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2003. "Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments," Social Protection and Labor Policy and Technical Notes 29138, The World Bank.
    4. Korkeala, Outi & Newhouse, David & Duarte, Mafalda, 2009. "Distributional impact analysis of past climate variability in rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5070, The World Bank.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2014. "Poverty and natural disasters: A meta-analysis," Working Paper Series 3234, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    2. Sirikarn Lertamphainont & Robert Sparrow, 2016. "The Economic Impacts of Extreme Rainfall Events on Farming Households: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 45, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Oct 2016.
    3. Dacuycuy, Connie B., 2017. "Energy Consumption, Weather Variability, and Gender in the Philippines: A Discrete/Continuous Approach," Discussion Papers DP 2017-06, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    4. Tomoki Fujii, 2016. "Climate change and vulnerability to poverty: an empirical investigation in rural Indonesia," Chapters,in: The Asian ‘Poverty Miracle’, chapter 5, pages 118-146 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Skoufias, Emmanuel & Rabassa, Mariano & Olivieri, Sergio & Brahmbhatt, Milan, 2011. "The Poverty Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 51, pages 1-5, March.
    6. Karim, Azreen, 2016. "The household response to persistent natural disasters: Evidence from Bangladesh," Working Paper Series 4968, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Dacuycuy, Connie B., 2016. "Weather Events and Welfare in the Philippine Households," Research Paper Series DP 2016-34, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    8. Azreen Karim & Ilan Noy, 2016. "Poverty And Natural Disasters — A Qualitative Survey Of The Empirical Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-36, March.
    9. Noy, Ilan & Karim, Azreen, 2013. "Poverty, inequality and natural disasters – A survey," Working Paper Series 2974, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    10. World Bank, 2012. "The Welfare Effects of Extreme Weather Events : Insights from Three APEC Case Studies," World Bank Other Operational Studies 13039, The World Bank.
    11. Dacuycuy, Connie B., 2016. "Weather Events and Welfare in the Philippine Households," Discussion Papers DP 2016-34, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    12. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Climate Change, Rice Crops and Violence. Evidence from Indonesia," CESifo Working Paper Series 4665, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. repec:eee:wdevel:v:103:y:2018:i:c:p:40-59 is not listed on IDEAS

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