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The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar

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Listed:
  • Francesca Marchetta
  • David E Sahn
  • Luca Tiberti

Abstract

We examine the impact of rainfall variability and cyclones on schooling and work among a cohort of teens and young adults in Madagascar. We estimate a bivariate probit model using a panel survey conducted in 2004 and 2011 in this poor island nation, which is frequently affected by extreme weather events. Our results show that negative rainfall deviations and cyclones reduce the probability of attending school and encourage young men and, to a greater extent, women to enter the work force, and they reduce their French and math test scores. Less wealthy households are most likely to experience this school-to-work transition in the face of rainfall shocks. The finding is consistent with poorer households having less savings and more limited access to credit and insurance, which reduces their ability to cope with rainfall shortages. We also find that there are both contemporaneous and lagged effects of the weather shocks, and that they are of a similar magnitude. Our findings are robust to the use of a linear probability model, as well as a wide range of definitions of rainfall variations.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesca Marchetta & David E Sahn & Luca Tiberti, 2019. "The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1203-1227.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:101:y:2019:i:4:p:1203-1227.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ajae/aaz015
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    Cited by:

    1. Leight, Jessica & Mukerjee, Rishabh & Schmidt, Emily, 2025. "The gendered effects of rainfall on early childhood nutrition: Evidence from Papua New Guinea," IFPRI discussion papers 2358, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Mulungu, Kelvin & Manning, Dale T. & Bozzola, Martina, 2025. "Once bitten, twice shy? Direct and indirect effects of weather shocks on fertilizer and improved seeds use," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Sen, Kritika & Villa, Kira M., 2022. "Rainfall shocks and adolescent school-work transition: Evidence from rural South Africa," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322383, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Francesca Marchetta, 2021. "Heterogeneity in migration responses to climate shocks: evidence from Madagascar," Post-Print hal-03335926, HAL.
    5. Fruttero, Anna & Halim, Daniel & Broccolini, Chiara & Coelho, Bernardo & Gninafon, Horace Mahugnon Akim & Muller, Noel, 2023. "Gendered Impacts of Climate Change : Evidence from Weather Shocks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10442, The World Bank.
    6. Barnor, Kodjo & Kafle, Kashi, 2025. "Dry weather, empty desks? Rainfall Shocks and Child Education in Tanzania," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 361160, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. World Bank, 2023. "How to Protect, Build, and Use Human Capital to Address Climate Change," World Bank Publications - Reports 40740, The World Bank Group.
    8. Feeny, Simon & Mishra, Ankita & Trinh, Trong-Anh & Ye, Longfeng & Zhu, Anna, 2021. "Early-Life exposure to rainfall shocks and gender gaps in employment: Findings from Vietnam," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 533-554.
    9. Fontaine, Idriss & Garabedian, Sabine & Vérèmes, Hélène, 2024. "Tropical cyclones and fertility: New evidence from developing countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    10. Carolyn B. Reyes & Heather Randell, 2023. "Household Shocks and Adolescent Well-Being in Peru," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(3), pages 1-22, June.
    11. Andrey Samarskly & Maria Waldinger, 2024. "EU Development Policy and Climate Change," EconPol Policy Brief 61, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    12. Khalid, Nazar & Behrman, Jere R. & Hannum, Emily & Thapa, Amrit, 2025. "Floods, community infrastructure, and children’s heterogeneous learning losses in rural India," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Germán Caruso & Inés Marcos & Ilan Noy, 2024. "Climate Changes Affect Human Capital," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 157-196, March.
    14. Sylvain Dessy & Francesca Marchetta & Roland Pongou & Luca Tiberti, 2024. "Women’s Relative Earning Power and Fertility: Evidence from Climate Shocks in Rural Madagascar," Working Papers - Economics wp2024_14.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    15. Barnor, Kodjo & Kafle, Kashi, 2025. "Dry weather, empty desks? Rainfall Shocks and Child Education in Tanzania," 2025 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2025, Denver, CO 360983, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. He, Xi & Chen, Zhenshan, 2022. "Weather, cropland expansion, and deforestation in Ethiopia," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    17. Sameh Hallaq & Yousuf Daas, 2024. "The impact of climate change on the Palestinian sectoral reallocation of labor," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 505-539, September.
    18. Pushkar Maitra & Anirudh Tagat, 2024. "Labor supply responses to rainfall shocks," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 851-887, August.
    19. Marchetta, Francesca & Sim, Sokcheng, 2021. "The effect of parental migration on the schooling of children left behind in rural Cambodia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    20. Ziming Zhou & Zhiming Yu & Haitao Wu, 2022. "Climate Shocks, Household Resource Allocation, and Vulnerability to Poverty," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-16, July.
    21. World Bank, 2024. "Madagascar Poverty and Equity Assessment, February 2024," World Bank Publications - Reports 41087, The World Bank Group.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • J43 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Agricultural Labor Markets
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development

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