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The 1987-89 Locust Plague in Mali: Evidences of the Heterogeneous Impact of Income Shocks on Education Outcomes

  • Philippe De Vreyer

    ()

    (Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa, UMR 225 DIAL, IRD)

  • Nathalie Guilbert

    ()

    (Université Paris Dauphine, LEDa, UMR 225 DIAL, IRD)

  • Sandrine Mesplé-Somps

    ()

    (DIAL, IRD, Paris)

This paper estimates the long run impact of a large income shock, by exploiting the regional variation of the 1987-1989 locust invasion in Mali. Using exhaustive Population Census data, we construct birth cohorts of individuals and compare those born and living in the years and villages affected by locust plagues with other cohorts. We find a clear and strong impact on educational outcomes of children living in rural areas but no impact at all on children living in urban areas. School enrollment of children born or aged less than seven years old at the time of shock is found to be impacted. Children born in 1988-1989, the main years of invasion, are those whose school enrollment has been the most affected by the plague. The negative impact on school enrollment of boys is higher than for girls, but on the other hand, girls attending school and living in rural areas have a lower level of school attainment than boys. Controlling for the potentially selective migration behavior of individuals, differences in educational amenities do not dampen our results. Our results are also robust to different variations of the cut-off cohort. _________________________________ L’objet de ce travail est d’estimer l’impact à long terme de chocs de revenu à travers l’analyse des effets de l’invasion de criquets qui a eu lieu de 1987 à 1989 au Mali sur différents indicateurs d’éducation. En mobilisant des données exhaustives de recensement de la population, nous construisons des cohortes d’individus selon leur date de naissance et leur lieu de résidence. Nous examinons les écarts de scolarisation des enfants impactés en double différence. Nous montrons un impact fort et significatif du choc sur les enfants des zones rurales et aucun effet sur les enfants des villes. Les enfants nés ou âgés de moins de sept ans lors des invasions de criquets ont des taux de scolarisation inférieurs aux autres. L’impact est à la fois plus fort pour les enfants qui sont nés en 1988 et 1989 c'est-à-dire les années de plus fortes invasions de criquets et pour les garçons. Cependant, parmi les enfants scolarisés, la durée de scolarisation est plus réduite du fait des invasions de criquets pour les filles que pour les garçons. Ces résultats sont maintenus lorsque l’on contrôle du biais potentiel de migration, des différences possibles d’évolution des niveaux d’infrastructures entre villages et lorsque l’on fait varier le seuil des cohortes incluses dans l'échantillon.

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File URL: http://www.dial.ird.fr/media/ird-sites-d-unites-de-recherche/dial/documents/publications/doc_travail/2012/2012-05
File Function: First version, 2012
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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2012/05.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201205
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