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Civil war, climate change, and development: A scenario study for sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Conor Devitt

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago)

  • Richard SJ Tol

    (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam & Trinity College, Dublin)

Abstract

This article presents a model of development, civil war and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war and civil war in the neighbouring countries reduce economic growth. The model has two potential poverty traps – one is climate-change-induced and one is civil-war-induced – and the two poverty traps may reinforce one another. The model is calibrated to sub-Saharan Africa and a double Monte Carlo analysis is conducted in order to account for both parameter uncertainty and stochasticity. Although the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) is used as the baseline, thus assuming rapid economic growth in Africa and convergence of African living standards to the rest of the world, the impacts of civil war and climate change (ignored in SRES) are sufficiently strong to keep a number of countries in Africa in deep poverty with a high probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Conor Devitt & Richard SJ Tol, 2012. "Civil war, climate change, and development: A scenario study for sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 129-145, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:49:y:2012:i:1:p:129-145
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frances Ruane & Xiaoheng Zhang, 2007. "Location Choices of the Pharmaceutical Industry in Europe after 1992," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp220, IIIS.
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    Cited by:

    1. Torsten Grothmann & Maximilian Petzold & Patrick Ndaki & Vincent Kakembo & Bernd Siebenhüner & Michael Kleyer & Pius Yanda & Naledzani Ndou, 2017. "Vulnerability Assessment in African Villages under Conditions of Land Use and Climate Change: Case Studies from Mkomazi and Keiskamma," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-30, June.
    2. Timothy Allen Carter & Daniel Jay Veale, 2015. "The timing of conflict violence: Hydraulic behavior in the Ugandan civil war," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 32(4), pages 370-394, September.
    3. Richard Tol, 2013. "Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(4), pages 961-970, April.
    4. Richard S.J. Tol, 2012. "The Implications of a Break-Up of China for Carbon Dioxide Emissions," Working Paper Series 3912, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    5. Suthan Krishnarajan, 2019. "Crisis? What crisis? Measuring economic crisis in political science," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 1479-1493, May.
    6. Drago Bergholt & Päivi Lujala, 2012. "Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 147-162, January.
    7. Agraw Ali Beshir & Jaemin Song, 2021. "Urbanization and its impact on flood hazard: the case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 1167-1190, October.
    8. Pedro Zorrilla-Miras & Estrella López-Moya & Marc J. Metzger & Genevieve Patenaude & Almeida Sitoe & Mansour Mahamane & Sá Nogueira Lisboa & James S. Paterson & Elena López-Gunn, 2021. "Understanding Complex Relationships between Human Well-Being and Land Use Change in Mozambique Using a Multi-Scale Participatory Scenario Planning Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-21, November.
    9. Exenberger Andreas & Pondorfer Andreas, 2013. "Climate Change and the Risk of Mass Violence: Africa in the 21st Century," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 381-392, December.

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