The Implications of a Break-Up of China for Carbon Dioxide Emissions
The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in emissions. If something similar would happen in China, projected emissions would fall by 50% or more. Break-up uncertainty dominates other scenario uncertainty.
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- Devitt, Conor & Tol, Richard S. J., 2010.
"Civil War, Climate Change and Development: A Scenario Study for Sub-Saharan Africa,"
WP351, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
- Conor Devitt & Richard SJ Tol, 2012. "Civil war, climate change, and development: A scenario study for sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 129-145, January.
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