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War and warming: The effects of climate change on military conflicts in developing countries (1995–2020)

Author

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  • Ko, Jeremy
  • Lee, Harry F.
  • Leung, Chun Kai

Abstract

Numerous studies have explored the links between climate change and military conflicts. This study delves into the types and intensities of conflicts likely caused by climate change in developing countries from 1995 to 2020. Through a country-year panel analysis, it isolates the impact of rising global greenhouse gas emissions on conflict occurrence. Findings consistently show a significant positive association between greenhouse gas emissions and military conflicts, especially low-intensity and internationalized intrastate conflicts. Additional tests confirm these results' robustness, including heterogeneity analysis, substitution of key explanatory variables, sensitivity analysis, and alternative analytical methods. The analysis highlights how environmental scarcity due to climate change drives small-scale conflicts within countries, while geopolitics and environmental scarcity also lead to internationalized intrastate wars. The study recommends that developed countries and the international community support developing countries in building resilience against climate change and advocates for collaborative efforts to mitigate its adverse effects on global security.

Suggested Citation

  • Ko, Jeremy & Lee, Harry F. & Leung, Chun Kai, 2024. "War and warming: The effects of climate change on military conflicts in developing countries (1995–2020)," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ingrde:v:3:y:2024:i:4:s2949753124000523
    DOI: 10.1016/j.igd.2024.100175
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    Cited by:

    1. Ko, Jeremy & Leung, Chun Kai, 2025. "Gender Inequality and ESG performance: A global analysis of governance, environmental, and social outcomes in 97 countries," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(4).
    2. Imran, Muhammad & Shah, Syed Tahir Hussain & Asif, Muhammad & Ahmad, Ishfaq & Zaman, Khalid, 2025. "Asymmetric impacts of outward foreign investment flows and green energy demand on global carbon emissions: evidence from the world's top five emitters," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(5).
    3. Leung, Chun Kai & Ko, Jeremy & Chen, Xiaoxian, 2025. "Economic crises and the erosion of sustainability: A global analysis of ESG performance in 100 countries (1990–2019)," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    4. Leung, Chun Kai & Ko, Jeremy & Guo, Chunlan, 2025. "Weathering the storm: Analyzing the impact of extreme climate events on energy consumption across 141 countries," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(3).

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