IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v176y2023i11d10.1007_s10584-023-03617-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What climate? The different meaning of climate indicators in violent conflict studies

Author

Listed:
  • Ruben Dahm

    (Deltares)

  • Karen Meijer

    (Deltares
    SIPRI, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute)

  • Ernst Kuneman

    (International Sustainability Centre
    Agora Energiewende)

  • Louise Schaik

    (International Sustainability Centre)

Abstract

This paper explores the operationalization of climate-related indicators in violent conflict research. The climate-conflict narrative gained traction in recent decades and climate change is often referred to as a ‘threat multiplier’ by both policy makers and scholars. Yet, the relationships between climate-related phenomena and violent conflict are complex and context-specific. However, limited attention has been given to the climatic indicators applied in climate-conflict research. This paper addresses that gap by analyzing 32 studies published from 2004 to 2020 on the operationalization of climatic indicators and their relationship with violent conflict. It first categorizes climate indicators operationalization into five clusters: natural disasters, basic climate variability, advanced climate variability, freshwater availability, and the ENSO. The study evaluates the climate indicators for each cluster and shows that at an aggregate level these clusters examine 68 different climate representations. When paired with their respective conflict types, it finds a total of 113 climate-conflict combinations. Most operationalizations represent various forms of climate-related phenomena and variability rather than climate change. Some indicators are advancements over time, for example moving from changes in average rainfall to standardized precipitation indices. However, other indicators refer to various natural processes, making it challenging to determine whether climatic variability impacts conflict. The paper then demonstrates a discrepancy between the pathways through which climate may affect violent conflict and the representation of these pathways in the selected climate indicators. It discusses how the selection and operationalization of climate indicators requires careful consideration, and the phenomena researched should be well-specified in research findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruben Dahm & Karen Meijer & Ernst Kuneman & Louise Schaik, 2023. "What climate? The different meaning of climate indicators in violent conflict studies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(11), pages 1-23, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:11:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03617-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03617-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-023-03617-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-023-03617-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ore Koren & Benjamin E Bagozzi & Thomas S Benson, 2021. "Food and water insecurity as causes of social unrest: Evidence from geolocated Twitter data," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(1), pages 67-82, January.
    2. Jeroen Klomp & Erwin Bulte, 2013. "Climate change, weather shocks, and violent conflict: a critical look at the evidence," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 63-78, November.
    3. Nina von Uexkull & Halvard Buhaug, 2021. "Security implications of climate change: A decade of scientific progress," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(1), pages 3-17, January.
    4. François Gemenne & Jon Barnett & W. Adger & Geoffrey Dabelko, 2014. "Climate and security: evidence, emerging risks, and a new agenda," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 1-9, March.
    5. Antonio Ciccone, 2013. "Estimating the Effect of Transitory Economic Shocks on Civil Conflict," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 4(2).
    6. Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2014. "Drought and Civil War In Sub‐Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 201-244, March.
      • Couttenier, Mathieu & Hofstetter, Annie & Soubeyran, Raphael, 2013. "Drought and civil war in sub-Saharan Africa," INRAE Sciences Sociales, Institut national de recherche pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (INRAE), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2), vol. 2013, pages 1-6, March.
    7. Tackseung Jun, 2017. "Temperature, maize yield, and civil conflicts in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 183-197, May.
    8. Katharine J. Mach & Caroline M. Kraan & W. Neil Adger & Halvard Buhaug & Marshall Burke & James D. Fearon & Christopher B. Field & Cullen S. Hendrix & Jean-Francois Maystadt & John O’Loughlin & Philip, 2019. "Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict," Nature, Nature, vol. 571(7764), pages 193-197, July.
    9. Halvard Buhaug, 2015. "Climate–conflict research: some reflections on the way forward," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(3), pages 269-275, May.
    10. Stephen Nemeth & Brian Lai, 2022. "When do natural disasters lead to negotiations in a civil war?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 59(1), pages 28-42, January.
    11. Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 215-227, October.
    12. Abrahams, Daniel, 2020. "Conflict in abundance and peacebuilding in scarcity: Challenges and opportunities in addressing climate change and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Mariya Y. Omelicheva, 2011. "Natural Disasters: Triggers of Political Instability?," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 441-465, October.
    14. M. Haasnoot & H. Middelkoop & E. van Beek & W. P. A. van Deursen, 2011. "A method to develop sustainable water management strategies for an uncertain future," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 369-381, November.
    15. Drago Bergholt & Päivi Lujala, 2012. "Climate-related natural disasters, economic growth, and armed civil conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 147-162, January.
    16. Indra de Soysa, 2002. "Ecoviolence: Shrinking Pie, or Honey Pot?," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 2(4), pages 1-34, November.
    17. Nina von Uexkull & Marco d’Errico & Julius Jackson, 2020. "Drought, Resilience, and Support for Violence: Household Survey Evidence from DR Congo," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 64(10), pages 1994-2021, November.
    18. Alexander De Juan & Niklas Hänze, 2021. "Climate and cohesion: The effects of droughts on intra-ethnic and inter-ethnic trust," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(1), pages 151-167, January.
    19. Paola Vesco & Matija Kovacic & Malcolm Mistry & Mihai Croicu, 2021. "Climate variability, crop and conflict: Exploring the impacts of spatial concentration in agricultural production," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(1), pages 98-113, January.
    20. Jonas Nordkvelle & Siri Aas Rustad & Monika Salmivalli, 2017. "Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 627-639, April.
    21. Ole Theisen & Nils Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug, 2013. "Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 613-625, April.
    22. Andrew M Linke & Brett Ruether, 2021. "Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(1), pages 114-131, January.
    23. Hsiang, Solomon M & Burke, Marshall & Miguel, Edward, 2013. "Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt28c3c631, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    24. Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2021. "This time is different! Or is it? NeoMalthusians and environmental optimists in the age of climate change," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(1), pages 177-185, January.
    25. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    26. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Castells-Quintana, David & Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & McDermott, Thomas K.J., 2022. "Population displacement and urban conflict: Global evidence from more than 3300 flood events," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. David Castells-Quintana & Maria del Pilar Lopez-Uribe & Tom McDermott, 2015. "Climate change and the geographical and institutional drivers of economic development," GRI Working Papers 198, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    3. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," Working Papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    5. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    6. H. Buhaug & J. Nordkvelle & T. Bernauer & T. Böhmelt & M. Brzoska & J. Busby & A. Ciccone & H. Fjelde & E. Gartzke & N. Gleditsch & J. Goldstone & H. Hegre & H. Holtermann & V. Koubi & J. Link & P. Li, 2014. "One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 391-397, December.
    7. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," CERDI Working papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    8. Jean-François Maystadt & Olivier Ecker, 2014. "Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1157-1182.
    9. Unfried, Kerstin & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Poser, Tilman, 2022. "Water scarcity and social conflict," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Achim Ahrens, 2015. "Civil conflicts in Africa: Climate, economic shocks, nighttime lights and spill-over effects," SEEC Discussion Papers 1501, Spatial Economics and Econometrics Centre, Heriot Watt University.
    11. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    12. Bertinelli, Luisito & Cömertpay, Rana & Maystadt, Jean-François, 2025. "Ethnic diversity and conflict in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from refugee-hosting areas," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    13. Solomon Hsiang & Marshall Burke, 2014. "Climate, conflict, and social stability: what does the evidence say?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 39-55, March.
    14. Ole Theisen & Nils Gleditsch & Halvard Buhaug, 2013. "Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 117(3), pages 613-625, April.
    15. Hjort, Ingrid, 2016. "Potential Climate Risks in Financial Markets: A Literature Overview," Memorandum 01/2016, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    16. Liang, Weidong & Sim, Nicholas, 2019. "Did rainfall shocks cause civil conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa? The implications of data revisions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    17. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    18. Oeindrila Dube & Joshua Blumenstock & Michael Callen, 2022. "Measuring Religion from Behavior: Climate Shocks and Religious Adherence in Afghanistan," NBER Working Papers 30694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Federica Cappelli & Caterina Conigliani & Davide Consoli & Valeria Costantini & Elena Paglialunga, 2023. "Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 40(2), pages 517-560, July.
    20. Zhukov, Yuri M., 2016. "Trading hard hats for combat helmets: The economics of rebellion in eastern Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-15.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:11:d:10.1007_s10584-023-03617-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.