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Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict

Author

Listed:
  • Katharine J. Mach

    (Stanford University)

  • Caroline M. Kraan

    (Stanford University)

  • W. Neil Adger

    (University of Exeter)

  • Halvard Buhaug

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo
    Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

  • Marshall Burke

    (Stanford University
    National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • James D. Fearon

    (Stanford University)

  • Christopher B. Field

    (Stanford University)

  • Cullen S. Hendrix

    (University of Denver
    Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Jean-Francois Maystadt

    (University of Antwerp
    Lancaster University)

  • John O’Loughlin

    (University of Colorado Boulder)

  • Philip Roessler

    (William & Mary)

  • Jürgen Scheffran

    (University of Hamburg)

  • Kenneth A. Schultz

    (Stanford University)

  • Nina Uexkull

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo
    Uppsala University)

Abstract

Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.

Suggested Citation

  • Katharine J. Mach & Caroline M. Kraan & W. Neil Adger & Halvard Buhaug & Marshall Burke & James D. Fearon & Christopher B. Field & Cullen S. Hendrix & Jean-Francois Maystadt & John O’Loughlin & Philip, 2019. "Climate as a risk factor for armed conflict," Nature, Nature, vol. 571(7764), pages 193-197, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:571:y:2019:i:7764:d:10.1038_s41586-019-1300-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41586-019-1300-6
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