IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/cesptp/halshs-03835104.html

Climate change and population: an assessment of mortality due to health impacts

Author

Listed:
  • Antonin Pottier

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marc Fleurbaey

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Aurélie Méjean

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Stéphane Zuber

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We develop a model of population dynamics accounting for the impact of climate change on mortality through ve channels (heat, diarrhoeal disease, malaria, dengue, undernutrition). An age-dependent mortality, which depends on global temperature increase, is introduced and calibrated. We consider three climate scenarios (RCP 6.0, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6) and find that the five risks induce deaths in the range from 135,000 per annum (in the near term) to 280,000 per annum (at the end of the century) in the RCP 6.0 scenario. We examine the number of life-years lost due to the five selected risks and find figures ranging from 4 to 9 million annually. These numbers are too low to impact the aggregate dynamics but they have interesting evolution patterns. The number of life-years lost is constant (RCP 6.0) or decreases over time (RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6). For the RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios, we find that the number of life-years lost is higher today than in 2100, due to improvements in generic mortality conditions, the bias of those improvements towards the young, and an ageing population. From that perspective, the present generation is found to bear the brunt of the considered climate change impacts.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonin Pottier & Marc Fleurbaey & Aurélie Méjean & Stéphane Zuber, 2021. "Climate change and population: an assessment of mortality due to health impacts," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-03835104, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03835104
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.106967
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a
    for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alizadeh, Sadegh & Rezazadeh, Ali Akbar & Avami, Akram, 2024. "A cutting-edge tool for sustainable environmental management through life cycle assessment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    2. Foudjo, Suzie Imelda & Keneck-Massil, Joseph, 2024. "Climate vulnerability and child health outcomes in developing countries: Do women's political empowerment and female education make the difference?," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 351(C).
    3. Nguyen, Cuong Viet & Nguyen, Manh-Hung & Nguyen, Toan Truong, 2022. "Climate Change, Cold Waves, Heat Waves, and Mortality: Evidence from a Lower Middle-Income Country," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1034, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Ko, Jeremy & Lee, Harry F. & Leung, Chun Kai, 2024. "War and warming: The effects of climate change on military conflicts in developing countries (1995–2020)," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(4).
    5. Méjean, Aurélie & Pottier, Antonin & Zuber, Stéphane & Fleurbaey, Marc, 2023. "Opposite ethical views converge under the threat of catastrophic climate change," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03835104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.