IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jespps/jes-01-2015-0021.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Military spending, armed conflict and economic growth in developing countries in the post-Cold War era

Author

Listed:
  • Nusrate Aziz
  • M. Niaz Asadullah

Abstract

Purpose - While the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth during the Cold War period is well-researched, relatively less is known on the issue for the post-Cold War era. Equally how the relationship varies with respect to exposure to conflict is also not fully examined. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal impact of military expenditure on growth in the presence of internal and external threats for the period 1990-2013 using data from 70 developing countries. Design/methodology/approach - The main estimates are based on the generalized method of moments (GMM) regression model. But for comparison purposes, the authors also report estimates using fixed and random effects as well as pooled cross-section regressions. The regression specification accounts for non-linear effect of military expenditure allowing for interaction with conflict variable (where distinction is made between external and internal conflict). Findings - The analysis indicates that methods as well as model specification matter in studying the effect of military spending on growth. Full sample estimates based on GMM, fixed, and random effects models suggest a negative and statistically significant effect of military expenditure. However, fixed effects estimate becomes insignificant for low-income countries. The effect of military spending is also insignificant in the cross-sectional OLS model if conflict is not considered. When the regression model additionally controls for conflict, the effect of military spending conditional upon (internal) conflict exposure is significant and positive. No such effect is present conditional upon external threat. Research limitations/implications - One important limitation of the analysis is the small sample size – the authors had to restrict analysis to 70 low and middle-income countries for which the authors could construct post-Cold War panel data on military expenditure along with information on armed conflict exposure (the later from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 2015). Originality/value - To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first paper to examine the joint impact of military expenditure and conflict on economic growth in post-Cold War period in a sample of developing countries. Moreover, an attempt is made to review and revisit the large Cold War literature where studies vary considerably in terms findings. A key reason for this is the somewhat ad hoc choice of econometric methods – most rely on cross-section data and rarely conduct sensitivity analysis. The authors instead rely on panel data estimates but also report results based on naïve models for comparison purposes.

Suggested Citation

  • Nusrate Aziz & M. Niaz Asadullah, 2017. "Military spending, armed conflict and economic growth in developing countries in the post-Cold War era," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 47-68, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-01-2015-0021
    DOI: 10.1108/JES-01-2015-0021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-01-2015-0021/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JES-01-2015-0021/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/JES-01-2015-0021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Nicholas Staines, 2004. "Economic Performance Over the Conflict Cycle," IMF Working Papers 2004/095, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Smith, Ron P, 1978. "Military Expenditure and Capitalism: A Reply," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 2(3), pages 299-304, September.
    3. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1994. "Sources of economic growth," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-46, June.
    4. Ron Smith & J. Paul Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2000. "The econometrics of arms races," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 31-43.
    5. Smith, Ronald P., 1980. "Military expenditure and investment in OECD countries, 1954-1973," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 19-32, March.
    6. Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of Defense Economics," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    7. Ram, Rati, 1995. "Defense expenditure and economic growth," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 251-274, Elsevier.
    8. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287, December.
    9. Smith, R P, 1977. "Military Expenditure and Capitalism," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(1), pages 61-76, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Babajide, Adedoyin & Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Coleman, Simeon, 2021. "Violent conflicts and state capacity: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Government and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(C).
    2. Ullah, Assad & Zhao, Xinshun & Kamal, Muhammad Abdul & Zheng, JiaJia, 2020. "Modeling the relationship between military spending and stock market development (a) symmetrically in China: An empirical analysis via the NARDL approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 554(C).
    3. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2022. "Cross–Country Dependence, Heterogeneity and the Growth Effects of Military Spending," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 842-856, October.
    4. Dmitry Alexandrovich REPNIKOV, 2024. "Defense Expenditures and GDP Growth Rates in the World: Determinants and Interrelationships," Russian Foreign Economic Journal, Russian Foreign Trade Academy Ministry of economic development of the Russian Federation, issue 5, pages 48-58, May.
    5. Nusrate Aziz & Usman Khalid, 2019. "Armed Conflict, Military Expenses and FDI Inflow to Developing Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 238-251, February.
    6. Sampson Agyapong Atuahene & Kong Yusheng & Geoffrey Bentum-Micah & Evans Garti & Alexender Baah, 2020. "Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in China," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 10(2), pages 3-16.
    7. Luke Emeka Okafor & Usman Khalid, 2021. "Regaining international tourism attractiveness after an armed conflict: the role of security spending," Current Issues in Tourism, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 385-402, February.
    8. Shreesh Chary, 2023. "The nexus between arms imports, military expenditures and economic growth of the top arms importers in the world: a pooled mean group approach," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 51(4), pages 808-822, August.
    9. Ramazan ErdaÄŸ, 2021. "Security Environment and Military Spending of Turkey in the 2000s," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 8(1), pages 120-139, March.
    10. María Gabriela CUEVA-JIMÉNEZ & Ronny CORREA-QUEZADA & Ana Belén TULCANAZA-PRIETO & Lucía CUEVA-RODRÍGUEZ, 2024. "Crecimiento Económico Y Gasto Militar En El Ecuador: Un Enfoque De Cointegración Y Causalidad, 1960-2019," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 24(1), pages 91-110.
    11. Ahad, Muhammad & Dar, Adeel Ahmad, 2017. "Modeling the Asymmetric Impact of Defense Spending on Economic Growth: An Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL and Multipliers," MPRA Paper 80085, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    12. Stamegna, Marco & Bonaiuti, Chiara & Maranzano, Paolo & Pianta, Mario, 2024. "The economic impact of arms spending in Germany, Italy, and Spain," MPRA Paper 120608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ko, Jeremy & Lee, Harry F. & Leung, Chun Kai, 2024. "War and warming: The effects of climate change on military conflicts in developing countries (1995–2020)," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 3(4).
    14. Luqman Saeed, 2025. "The Impact of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth: A New Instrumental Variables Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 86-101, January.
    15. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2019. "Military spending, economic growth and investment: a disaggregated analysis by income group," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 935-958, March.
    16. Usman Khalid & Luke Emeka Okafor & Nusrate Aziz, 2020. "Armed conflict, military expenditure and international tourism," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 555-577, June.
    17. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Rafael Alvarado & Fayyaz Ahmad, 2023. "The nexus of military, final consumption expenditures, total reserves, and economic development of Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1753-1776, June.
    18. Yanyan, Fu & Dong, Xitao, 2024. "Exploring the influence of internal and external conflicts on the resource curse hypothesis in OECD countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. Khaldoon A. Mourad & Helen Avery, 2019. "The Sustainability of Post-Conflict Development: The Case of Algeria," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-18, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Paul Dunne & Ron P. Smith, 2020. "Military Expenditure, Investment and Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 601-614, August.
    2. Hou Na & Chen Bo, 2014. "Military Spending and Economic Growth in An Augmented Solow Model: A Panel Data Investigation for OECD Countries," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 395-409, August.
    3. Malizard, Julien, 2015. "Does military expenditure crowd out private investment? A disaggregated perspective for the case of France," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 44-52.
    4. Paula Gómez-Trueba Santamaría & Alfredo Arahuetes García & Tomás Curto González, 2021. "A tale of five stories: Defence spending and economic growth in NATO´s countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, January.
    5. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios (ed.), 2012. "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195392777, Decembrie.
    6. Onur Ozsoy, 2002. "Budgetary Trade-Offs Between Defense, Education and Health Expenditures: The Case of Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 129-136.
    7. Julien Malizard, 2013. "Opportunity Cost Of Defense: An Evaluation In The Case Of France," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 247-259, June.
    8. Giorgio d’Agostino & John Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2019. "Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 509-524, July.
    9. Alptekin, Aynur & Levine, Paul, 2012. "Military expenditure and economic growth: A meta-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 636-650.
    10. Gong, Liutang & Zou, Heng-fu, 2003. "Military spending and stochastic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 153-170, October.
    11. Alexamder, W.R. & Hansen, P. Author-Emai, 2004. "A Criritique of the Multi-Sector Model of the Effects of Military Spending on Economic Growth," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(2).
    12. Jenn-Hong Tang & Cheng-Chung Lai & Eric Lin, 2009. "Military Expenditure And Unemployment Rates: Granger Causality Tests Using Global Panel Data," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 253-267.
    13. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2022. "Is Military Spending Quantitatively Important for Business Cycle Fluctuations?," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 65(1), pages 28-51.
    14. repec:aoj:growth:v:8:y:2021:i:1:p:12-26:id:3151 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Giorgio d'Agostino & J Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2016. "How much does military spending affect growth? Causal estimates from the World's non-rich countries," SALDRU Working Papers 196, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Kumar Mahalik, Mantu & Khan, Saleheen, 2018. "Military Spending Response to Defense Shocks? International Evidence," MPRA Paper 87362, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Jun 2018.
    17. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2006. "‘Guns Or Butter?’ Revisited: Robustness And Nonlinearity Issues In The Defense–Growth Nexus," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(4), pages 523-541, September.
    18. Christos Kollias & Thanasis Maniatis, 2003. "Military expenditure and the profit rate in Greece," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 117-127.
    19. Benjamin E. Goldsmith, 2003. "Bearing the Defense Burden, 1886-1989," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(5), pages 551-573, October.
    20. Muhammad Shahbaz & Naceur Khraief & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Saleheen Khan, 2018. "Are Fluctuations in Military Spending Transitory or Permanent? International Evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1198-1212.
    21. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Does Defence Spending Impede Economic Growth? Cointegration And Causality Analysis For Pakistan," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 105-120, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Internal and external armed conflict; Military expenditure; O11; H56;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-01-2015-0021. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.