From carbonization to decarbonization?--Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions
Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500Â ppm CO2-only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- van Vuuren, Detlef & Fengqi, Zhou & Vries, Bert de & Kejun, Jiang & Graveland, Cor & Yun, Li, 2003. "Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century--exploration of baseline development and mitigation options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 369-387, March.
- Nordhaus, William D & Yang, Zili, 1996. "A Regional Dynamic General-Equilibrium Model of Alternative Climate-Change Strategies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(4), pages 741-65, September.
- Ma, Chunbo & He, Lining, 2008. "From state monopoly to renewable portfolio: Restructuring China's electric utility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1697-1711, May.
- Dai Yande & Zhu Yuezhong, 2005. "China's energy demand scenarios to 2020: impact analysis of policy options on China's future energy demand," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 24(3/4), pages 131-143.
- Liao, Hua & Fan, Ying & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2007. "What induced China's energy intensity to fluctuate: 1997-2006?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4640-4649, September.
- Sun, J.W & Ang, B.W, 2000. "Some properties of an exact energy decomposition model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1177-1188.
- Manne, Alan & Mendelsohn, Robert & Richels, Richard, 1995. "MERGE : A model for evaluating regional and global effects of GHG reduction policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-34, January.
- Zhang, Ming & Mu, Hailin & Ning, Yadong, 2009. "Accounting for energy-related CO2 emission in China, 1991-2006," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 767-773, March.
- Nordhaus, William, 2007. "Alternative measures of output in global economic-environmental models: Purchasing power parity or market exchange rates?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 349-372, May.
- Schmidt, Robert C. & Marschinski, Robert, 2010. "Can China benefit from adopting a binding emissions target?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3763-3770, July.
- Larson, Eric D. & Zongxin, Wu & DeLaquil, Pat & Wenying, Chen & Pengfei, Gao, 2003. "Future implications of China's energy-technology choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 1189-1204, September.
- Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
- Zhao, Xiaoli & Ma, Chunbo & Hong, Dongyue, 2010. "Why did China's energy intensity increase during 1998-2006: Decomposition and policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1379-1388, March.
- Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can & Chen, Jining & Wang, Ke & Zhang, Ying & Lu, Xuedu, 2008. "Comparison of CO2 emission scenarios and mitigation opportunities in China's five sectors in 2020," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1181-1194, March.
- van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Hoogwijk, Monique & Barker, Terry & Riahi, Keywan & Boeters, Stefan & Chateau, Jean & Scrieciu, Serban & van Vliet, Jasper & Masui, Toshihiko & Blok, Kornelis & Blomen, Eliane , 2009. "Comparison of top-down and bottom-up estimates of sectoral and regional greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5125-5139, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:6:p:3443-3455. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.