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Positive feedback trading under stress: Evidence from the US Treasury securities market

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin H. Cohen

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • Hyun Song Shin

    (Princeton University - Department of Economics)

Abstract

A vector autoregression is estimated on tick-by-tick data for quote-changes and signed trades of two-year, five-year and 10-year on-the-run US Treasury notes. Confirming the results found by Hasbrouck (1991) and others for the stock market, signed order flow tends to exert a strong effect on prices. More interestingly, however, there is often a strong effect in the opposite direction, particularly at times of volatile trading. Price declines elicit sales and price increases elicit purchases. An examination of tick-by-tick trading on an especially volatile day confirms this finding. At least in the US Treasury market, trades and price movements appear likely to exhibit positive feedback at short horizons, particularly during periods of market stress. This suggests that the standard analytical approach to the microstructure of financial markets, which focuses on the ways in which the information possessed by informed traders becomes incorporated into market prices through order flow, should be complemented by an account of how price changes affect trading decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin H. Cohen & Hyun Song Shin, 2003. "Positive feedback trading under stress: Evidence from the US Treasury securities market," BIS Working Papers 122, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:122
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2004. "Liquidity Black Holes," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18.
    2. Riccardo Rebonato & Valerio Gaspari, 2006. "Analysis of drawdowns and drawups in the US$ interest-rate market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 297-326.
    3. Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin & Renee Fry & Mardi Dungey, 2003. "Unanticipated Shocks and Systemic Influences; The Impact of Contagion in Global Equity Markets in 1998," IMF Working Papers 03/84, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Danielsson, Jon & Love, Ryan, 2004. "Feedback trading," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24760, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Michael J. Fleming & Joshua V. Rosenberg, 2007. "How do treasury dealers manage their positions?," Staff Reports 299, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. repec:eme:mfipps:v:36:y:2010:i:3:p:508-529 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Craig Furfine & Eli M. Remolona, 2005. "Price discovery in a market under stress: the U.S. Treasury market in fall 1998," Working Paper Series WP-05-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Arnold, Lutz G. & Brunner, Stephan, 2015. "The economics of rational speculation in the presence of positive feedback trading," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 161-174.
    9. Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2011. "Asymmetric Price Impacts of Order Flow on Exchange Rate Dynamics," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2011n14, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    10. Mizrach, Bruce & Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Information shares in the US Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1221-1233, July.
    11. Jakree Koosakul, 2016. "Daily Movements in the Thai Yield Curve: Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Drivers," PIER Discussion Papers 30., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Jun 2016.
    12. repec:bis:bisqtr:0206g is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa, 2004. "The Effects of Economic News on Bond Market Liquidity," Staff Working Papers 04-16, Bank of Canada.
    14. David Porter & Yusif Simaan & Daniel Weaver & David Whitcomb, 2006. "Effect of the Actual Size Rule Under Market Stress," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 87-103, March.
    15. Alessandro Girardi & Claudio Impenna, 2013. "Price Discovery In The Italian Sovereign Bonds Market: The Role Of Order Flow," Working Papers LuissLab 13108, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    16. Nathalie Oriol & Iryna Veryzhenko, 2015. "Market structure or traders’ behavior? An assessment of flash crash phenomena and their regulation based on a multi-agent simulation," Working Papers halshs-01254435, HAL.
    17. Boni, Leslie & Leach, Chris, 2004. "Expandable limit order markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 145-185, February.
    18. Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa & Jing Yang, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity and Order Flow in the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Bonds," Staff Working Papers 03-28, Bank of Canada.
    19. Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Viet Hoang Nguyen & Yongcheol Shin, 2014. "Quantifying Informational Linkages in a Global Model of Currency Spot Markets," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    20. Demosthenes Tambakis, 2009. "Feedback trading and intermittent market turbulence," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 477-489.
    21. Burak Saltoglu & Jon Danielsson, 2003. "Anatomy of a Market Crash: A Market Microstructure Analysis of the Turkish Overnight Liquidity Crisis," FMG Discussion Papers dp456, Financial Markets Group.
    22. Chayawadee Chai-Anant & Corinna Ho, 2008. "Understanding Asian equity flows, market returns and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 245, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. T. Clifton Green, 2004. "Economic News and the Impact of Trading on Bond Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1201-1234, June.
    24. Kenneth Khang & Tao-Hsien Dolly King, 2010. "Short horizon liquidity and trading activity in the US Treasury market: do inventory holding costs matter?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(14), pages 1085-1098.
    25. Jón Daníelsson & Ryan Love, 2006. "Feedback trading This paper is also available at www.riskresearch.org," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 35-53.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Treasury bond market; positive feedback; market microstructure;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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