IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Intraday Patterns in the Cross-section of Stock Returns

  • Steven L. Heston
  • Robert A. Korajczyk
  • Ronnie Sadka

Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, order imbalance, volatility, and bid-ask spreads exhibit similar patterns, but do not explain the return patterns. We also show that short-term return reversal is driven by temporary liquidity imbalances lasting less than an hour and bid-ask bounce. Timing trades can reduce execution costs by the equivalent of the effective spread.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1005.3535
File Function: Latest version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1005.3535.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Forthcomming: Journal of Finance 65 (4), 2010 1369-1407
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1005.3535
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983. "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders," Discussion Papers 570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Dimitri Vayanos, 2001. "Strategic Trading in a Dynamic Noisy Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 131-171, 02.
  3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
  4. Ariel, Robert A., 1987. "A monthly effect in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 161-174, March.
  5. Soeren Hvidkjaer, 2008. "Small Trades and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1123-1151, May.
  6. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
  7. Vayanos, Dimitri & Woolley, Paul, 2008. "An Institutional Theory of Momentum and Reversal," CEPR Discussion Papers 7068, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Wood, Robert A & McInish, Thomas H & Ord, J Keith, 1985. " An Investigation of Transactions Data for NYSE Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 723-39, July.
  9. Hendershott, Terrence & Jones, Charles M. & Menkveld, Albert J., 2008. "Does algorithmic trading improve liquidity?," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/41, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  10. Stoll, Hans R, 1978. "The Supply of Dealer Services in Securities Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1133-51, September.
  11. Korajczyk, Robert A. & Sadka, Ronnie, 2008. "Pricing the commonality across alternative measures of liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 45-72, January.
  12. Campbell, John & Schwartz, Allie & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2009. "Caught on Tape: Institutional Trading, Stock Returns, and Earnings Announcements," Scholarly Articles 2609649, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  13. Jain, Prem C. & Joh, Gun-Ho, 1988. "The Dependence between Hourly Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(03), pages 269-283, September.
  14. Keim, Donald B., 1989. "Trading patterns, bid-ask spreads, and estimated security returns : The case of common stocks at calendar turning points," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 75-97, November.
  15. Joshua D. Coval & Erik Stafford, 2005. "Asset Fire Sales (and Purchases) in Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 11357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  17. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. " Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-98, July.
  18. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 2005. "Diversification and the Optimal Construction of Basis Portfolios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 581-598, April.
  19. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1988. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 2533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Lehmann, Bruce N, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28, February.
  21. Sadka, Ronnie, 2006. "Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 309-349, May.
  22. Goyenko, Ruslan Y. & Holden, Craig W. & Trzcinka, Charles A., 2009. "Do liquidity measures measure liquidity?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 153-181, May.
  23. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2005. "Evidence on the speed of convergence to market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 271-292, May.
  24. French, Kenneth R., 1980. "Stock returns and the weekend effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 55-69, March.
  25. Dimson, Elroy, 1979. "Risk measurement when shares are subject to infrequent trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 197-226, June.
  26. William J. Breen & Laurie Simon Hodrick & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2002. "Predicting Equity Liquidity," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(4), pages 470-483, April.
  27. Andrew W. Lo & Jiang Wang, 2006. "Trading Volume: Implications of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2805-2840, December.
  28. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
  29. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Harris, Lawrence E., 1988. "Estimating the components of the bid/ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-142, May.
  30. Gur Huberman & Werner Stanzl, 2005. "Optimal Liquidity Trading," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 165-200, 06.
  31. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. " Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-46, June.
  32. Bertsimas, Dimitris & Lo, Andrew W., 1998. "Optimal control of execution costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-50, April.
  33. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October.
  34. Harris, Lawrence, 1986. "A transaction data study of weekly and intradaily patterns in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-117, May.
  35. Robert A. Korajczyk & Ronnie Sadka, 2003. "Are Momentum Profits Robust to Trading Costs?," Finance 0308004, EconWPA.
  36. Joel Hasbrouck, 2009. "Trading Costs and Returns for U.S. Equities: Estimating Effective Costs from Daily Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1445-1477, 06.
  37. Guercio, Diane Del & Tkac, Paula A., 2002. "The Determinants of the Flow of Funds of Managed Portfolios: Mutual Funds vs. Pension Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(04), pages 523-557, December.
  38. Holden, Craig W. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1998. "New Events, Information Acquisition, and Serial Correlation," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt4d2537cg, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  39. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1989. "When are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," NBER Working Papers 2977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Pagano, Michael S. & Peng, Lin & Schwartz, Robert A., 2008. "The quality of price formation at market openings and closings: Evidence from the Nasdaq stock market," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/45, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  41. Blume, Marshall E. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1983. "Biases in computed returns : An application to the size effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 387-404, November.
  42. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June.
  43. Large, Jeremy, 2007. "Measuring the resiliency of an electronic limit order book," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, February.
  44. Mark M. Carhart & Ron Kaniel & David K. Musto & Adam V. Reed, 2002. "Leaning for the Tape: Evidence of Gaming Behavior in Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 661-693, 04.
  45. Frazzini, Andrea & Lamont, Owen A., 2008. "Dumb money: Mutual fund flows and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 299-322, May.
  46. Doron Avramov & Tarun Chordia & Amit Goyal, 2006. "Liquidity and Autocorrelations in Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2365-2394, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1005.3535. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.