IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecnote/v44y2015i2p309-332.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Procyclicality and Path Dependence of Sovereign Credit Ratings: The Example of Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Lennart Freitag

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="en"> This paper investigates empirically the behavior of Credit Rating Agencies (CRAs) when assessing sovereign solvency for European countries. Using probit regressions, I find that even after controlling for macroeconomic factors, CRAs take the business cycle into account. Also, there is a clear case of path dependence in sovereign ratings. Additionally, it turns out that there seems to be a discrepancy between upgrades and downgrades. These results are robust to a number of different specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Lennart Freitag, 2015. "Procyclicality and Path Dependence of Sovereign Credit Ratings: The Example of Europe," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 44(2), pages 309-332, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:44:y:2015:i:2:p:309-332
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Rabah Arezki & Bertrand Candelon & Mr. Amadou N Sy, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers: Evidence from the European Debt Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2011/068, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Antonio Afonso, 2003. "Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 56-74, March.
    3. Heikki Kauppi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2008. "Predicting U.S. Recessions with Dynamic Binary Response Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-791, November.
    4. Harvey, A C, 1976. "Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(3), pages 461-465, May.
    5. Gande, Amar & Parsley, David, 2010. "Sovereign Credit Ratings, Transparency and International Portfolio Flows," MPRA Paper 21118, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. de Jong, Robert M. & Woutersen, Tiemen, 2011. "Dynamic Time Series Binary Choice," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(4), pages 673-702, August.
    7. G. Ferri & L.-G. Liu & J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "The Procyclical Role of Rating Agencies: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, November.
    8. Bar-Isaac, Heski & Shapiro, Joel, 2013. "Ratings quality over the business cycle," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 62-78.
    9. Cheng Hsiao & M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2012. "Diagnostic Tests of Cross‐section Independence for Limited Dependent Variable Panel Data Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(2), pages 253-277, April.
    10. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    11. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
    12. Christopher F. Baum & Margarita Karpava & Dorothea Schäfer & Andreas Stephan, 2013. "Credit Rating Agency Announcements and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1333, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Renault, Eric & Trognon, Alain, 1987. "Generalised residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 5-32.
    14. Candelon, Bertrand & Dumitrescu, Elena-Ivona & Hurlin, Christophe, 2014. "Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1016-1029.
    15. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
    16. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588.
    17. Antonio Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2009. "Ordered response models for sovereign debt ratings," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 769-773.
    18. Manfred Gärtner & Björn Griesbach & Florian Jung, 2011. "PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 288-299, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Freitag L., 2014. "Default probabilities, CDS premiums and downgrades : A probit-MIDAS analysis," Research Memorandum 038, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    2. Patrycja Chodnicka Jaworska, "undated". "Prediction Of Banking Sector Condition," Review of Socio - Economic Perspectives 201703, Reviewsep.
    3. Ozturk, Huseyin & Namli, Ersin & Erdal, Halil Ibrahim, 2016. "Modelling sovereign credit ratings: The accuracy of models in a heterogeneous sample," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 469-478.
    4. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
    5. Guneren Genc, Elif & Deniz Basar, Ozlem, 2019. "Comparison of Country Ratings of Credit Rating Agencies with MOORA Method," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 10(2), pages 391-404, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Freitag L., 2014. "Default probabilities, CDS premiums and downgrades : A probit-MIDAS analysis," Research Memorandum 038, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    2. Salvador, Carlos & Fernández de Guevara, Juan & Pastor, José Manuel, 2018. "The adjustment of bank ratings in the financial crisis: International evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 289-313.
    3. Nicolas Jannone Bellot, MaLuisa Marti Selva, Leandro Garcia Menendez, 2017. "Herding Behaviour among Credit Rating Agencies," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 56-83, March.
    4. Davor Kunovac & Rafael Ravnik, 2017. "Are Sovereign Credit Ratings Overrated?," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(2), pages 210-242, June.
    5. Antunes, António & Bonfim, Diana & Monteiro, Nuno & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2018. "Forecasting banking crises with dynamic panel probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 249-275.
    6. Manfred G?rtner & Bj?rn Griesbach, 2017. "Rating Agencies, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy and Multiple Equilibria? An Empirical Model of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis 2009-2011," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 199-226, June.
    7. Bernal, Oscar & Girard, Alexandre & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2016. "The importance of conflicts of interest in attributing sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 48-66.
    8. Steffen Nauhaus, 2015. "The Power of Opinion: More Evidence of a GIPS-Markup in Sovereign Ratings During the Euro Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1501, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. P. Hammer & A. Kogan & M. Lejeune, 2011. "Reverse-engineering country risk ratings: a combinatorial non-recursive model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 185-213, August.
    10. Erdem, Orhan & Varli, Yusuf, 2014. "Understanding the sovereign credit ratings of emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 42-57.
    11. Dähler, Timo, 2020. "Bias or ignorance? The politics and economics behind sovereign credit ratings," MPRA Paper 103965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    13. Broto, Carmen & Molina, Luis, 2016. "Sovereign ratings and their asymmetric response to fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 206-224.
    14. Teixeira, João C.A. & Silva, Francisco J.F. & Ferreira, Manuel B.S. & Vieira, José A.C., 2018. "Sovereign credit rating determinants under financial crises," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-13.
    15. Johannes Fedderke, 2013. "Promotion and Relegation between Country Risk Classes as Maintained by Country Risk Rating Agencies," Working Papers 376, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    16. Huseyin Ozturk & Ersin Namli & Halil Ibrahim Erdal, 2016. "Reducing Overreliance on Sovereign Credit Ratings: Which Model Serves Better?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 59-81, June.
    17. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:288-299 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2019. "What drives discretion in bank lending? Some evidence and a link to private information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 323-340.
    19. Bartels, Bernhard & Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, 2013. "A Rating Agency for Europe – A good idea?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Athari, Seyed Alireza & Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2021. "Dependency between sovereign credit ratings and economic risk: Insight from Balkan countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    21. Bernd Bartels, 2014. "Why Rating Agencies Disagree on Sovereign Ratings," Working Papers 1416, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 02 Dec 2014.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecnote:v:44:y:2015:i:2:p:309-332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0391-5026 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0391-5026 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.