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Determinants of Sovereign Ratings: A Comparison of Case-Based Reasoning and Ordered Probit Approaches

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  • Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick
  • Robert Brooks

    ()

  • Angela Y.N.Yip

Abstract

The paper compares two alternative techniques for the modelling of the determinants of sovereign ratings, specifically, ordered probit and case-based reasoning. Despite the differences in approach the two alternative modelling approaches produce similar results in terms of which variables are significant and forecast accuracy. This suggests that either approach can be used, and that there is some robustness in the results. As regards significant variables, both models find that a proxy for technological development, specifically, mobile phone use, is the most important variable. Apart from the technology proxy, a range of conventional macroeconomic variables are found to be significant, in particular GDP and inflation. The models are then used to produce forecasts for 2002 and for a set of unrated countries. The forecast comparison indicates the critical role played by the technology proxy variable in the modelling.

Suggested Citation

  • Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick & Robert Brooks & Angela Y.N.Yip, 2005. "Determinants of Sovereign Ratings: A Comparison of Case-Based Reasoning and Ordered Probit Approaches," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  • Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2005-9
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    File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2005/wp9-05.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Moon, Choon-Geol & Stotsky, Janet G, 1993. "Testing the Differences between the Determinants of Moody's and Standard & Poor's Ratings: An Application of Smooth Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 51-69, Jan.-Marc.
    2. Fry, T R L, et al, 1993. "Economic Motivations for Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variable Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(205), pages 193-205, June.
    3. Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    4. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
    5. Robert Brooks & Robert Faff & David Sokulsky, 2002. "An ordered response model of test cricket performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2353-2365.
    6. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
    7. Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert W. & Hillier, David & Hillier, Joseph, 2004. "The national market impact of sovereign rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 233-250, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Reusens, Peter & Croux, Christophe, 2017. "Sovereign credit rating determinants: A comparison before and after the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 108-121.
    2. Ozturk, Huseyin & Namli, Ersin & Erdal, Halil Ibrahim, 2016. "Modelling sovereign credit ratings: The accuracy of models in a heterogeneous sample," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 469-478.
    3. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2006. "What “Hides” Behind Sovereign Debt Ratings?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/35, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Huseyin Ozturk & Ersin Namli & Halil Ibrahim Erdal, 2016. "Reducing Overreliance on Sovereign Credit Ratings: Which Model Serves Better?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 59-81, June.
    5. Emilian C. Miricescu & Lucian Ţâţu & Delia Cornea, 2016. "The Determinants of the Sovereign Debt Rating: Evidence for the European Union Countries," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(1), pages 175-188.
    6. Erdem, Orhan & Varli, Yusuf, 2014. "Understanding the sovereign credit ratings of emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 42-57.
    7. repec:bla:abacus:v:53:y:2017:i:1:p:59-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Derya Gültekin-Karakaş & Mehtap Hisarcıklılar & Hüseyin Öztürk, 2011. "Sovereign Risk Ratings: Biased Toward Developed Countries?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 69-87, May.
    9. Dilek Teker & Aynur Pala & Oya Kent, 2013. "Determination of Sovereign Rating: Factor Based Ordered Probit Models for Panel Data Analysis Modelling Framework," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 122-132.
    10. Bernal, Oscar & Girard, Alexandre & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2016. "The importance of conflicts of interest in attributing sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 48-66.
    11. Unver, Mustafa & Dogru, Bulent, 2015. "The Determinants of Economic Fragility: Case of the Fragile Five Countries," MPRA Paper 68734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    12. Derya Gültekin-Karakaş & Mehtap Hisarcıklılar & Hüseyin Öztürk, 2011. "Sovereign Risk Ratings: Biased Toward Developed Countries?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 69-87, May.
    13. Panos Gavras & Sofoklis D. Vogiazas & Maria Koura, 2016. "An Empirical Assessment of Sovereign Country Risk in the Black Sea Region," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(1), pages 77-93, February.
    14. LaGarda, Guillermo & Prat, Jordi & Solera, Marco & Beverinotti, Javier, 2016. "Debt and Credit Quality in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic," MPRA Paper 74163, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Ratings; Ordered Response Models; Case-Based Reasoning;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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