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Determinants of Sovereign Ratings: A Comparison of Case-Based Reasoning and Ordered Probit Approaches

  • Emawtee Bissoondoyal-Bheenick
  • Robert Brooks

    ()

  • Angela Y.N.Yip

The paper compares two alternative techniques for the modelling of the determinants of sovereign ratings, specifically, ordered probit and case-based reasoning. Despite the differences in approach the two alternative modelling approaches produce similar results in terms of which variables are significant and forecast accuracy. This suggests that either approach can be used, and that there is some robustness in the results. As regards significant variables, both models find that a proxy for technological development, specifically, mobile phone use, is the most important variable. Apart from the technology proxy, a range of conventional macroeconomic variables are found to be significant, in particular GDP and inflation. The models are then used to produce forecasts for 2002 and for a set of unrated countries. The forecast comparison indicates the critical role played by the technology proxy variable in the modelling.

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File URL: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/ebs/pubs/wpapers/2005/wp9-05.pdf
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Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 9/05.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2005-9
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  1. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
  3. Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-93, July.
  4. Moon, Choon-Geol & Stotsky, Janet G, 1993. "Testing the Differences between the Determinants of Moody's and Standard & Poor's Ratings: An Application of Smooth Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 51-69, Jan.-Marc.
  5. Fry, T R L, et al, 1993. "Economic Motivations for Limited Dependent and Qualitative Variable Models," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 69(205), pages 193-205, June.
  6. Robert Brooks & Robert Faff & David Sokulsky, 2002. "An ordered response model of test cricket performance," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2353-2365.
  7. Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert W. & Hillier, David & Hillier, Joseph, 2004. "The national market impact of sovereign rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 233-250, January.
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