IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/335.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

To err is human: rating agencies and the interwar foreign government debt crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Flandreau
  • Norbert Gaillard
  • Frank Packer

Abstract

During the 1930s, rating agencies took up a central role in regulatory supervision that they still have today. The proximate cause for this changeover was the economic shock of the Great Depression. Exploring the performance of rating agencies in assessing the risks of sovereign debt, an important segment of the bond market, we do not find that superior forecasting capacities can explain the agencies' growing importance.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Flandreau & Norbert Gaillard & Frank Packer, 2010. "To err is human: rating agencies and the interwar foreign government debt crisis," BIS Working Papers 335, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:335
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work335.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work335.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc Flandreau & Carl-Ludwig Holtfrerich & Harold Douglas James, 2003. "International Financial History in the Twentieth Century : System and Anarchy," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03416725, HAL.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Werley, Carolyn, 1988. "How the Bondholders Fared: Realized Rates of Return on Foreign Dollar Bonds Floated in the 1920s," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2sm007kk, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    3. Eichengreen, Barry & Sachs, Jeffrey, 1985. "Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(4), pages 925-946, December.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "An Introduction," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 149-150, August.
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Portes, Richard, 1986. "Debt and default in the 1930s : Causes and consequences," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 599-640, June.
    6. Flandreau,Marc & Holtfrerich,Carl-Ludwig & James,Harold (ed.), 2003. "International Financial History in the Twentieth Century," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819954.
    7. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
    8. Klug, Adam & Landon-Lane, John S. & White, Eugene N., 2005. "How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-55, January.
    9. Ilse Mintz, 1951. "Deterioration in the Quality of Foreign Bonds Issued in the United States, 1920–1930," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mint51-1, March.
    10. Helmut Reisen & Julia Von Maltzan, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-293, July.
    11. Thomas R. Atkinson, 1967. "Trends in Corporate Bond Quality," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number atki67-1, March.
    12. Giovanni Favero, 2007. "Weather forecast or rain-dance? On inter-war business barometers," Working Papers 2007_14, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    13. Bank for International Settlements, 2008. "Ratings in structured finance: what went wrong and what can be done to address shortcomings?," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 32, december.
    14. Marc Flandreau, 2003. "Caveat Emptor : Coping with Sovereign Risk under the International Gold Standard," Post-Print hal-03571415, HAL.
    15. Efraim Benmelech & Jennifer Dlugosz, 2010. "The Credit Rating Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 161-207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. G. Ferri & L.-G. Liu & J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "The Procyclical Role of Rating Agencies: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, November.
    17. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(Oct), pages 37-53.
    18. Cantor, Richard & Packer, Frank, 1997. "Differences of opinion and selection bias in the credit rating industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(10), pages 1395-1417, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Ideen und Interessen
      by Tobias Straumann in Never mind the markets on 2012-07-31 09:00:32

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Amstad, Marlene & Packer, Frank & Shek, Jimmy, 2020. "Does sovereign risk in local and foreign currency differ?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Olivier Accominotti & Barry Eichengreen, 2016. "The mother of all sudden stops: capital flows and reversals in Europe, 1919–32," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 69(2), pages 469-492, May.
    3. Bussière, M. & Ristiniemi, A., 2012. "Credit Ratings and Debt Crises," Working papers 396, Banque de France.
    4. Marlene Amstad & Steven Kong & Frank Packer & Eli Remolona, 2016. "A spare tire for capital markets: Fostering corporate bond markets in Asia," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 85.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Trebesch, Christoph, 2014. "A Distant Mirror of Debt, Default, and Relief," CEPR Discussion Papers 10195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Sovereign Debt Relief and Its Aftermath," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 215-251.
    7. Marlene Amstad & Frank Packer, 2015. "Sovereign ratings of advanced and emerging economies after the crisis," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    8. Flores Zendejas, Juan, 2015. "Capital Markets and Sovereign Defaults: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers unige:73325, University of Geneva, Paul Bairoch Institute of Economic History.
    9. David James Gill, 2015. "Rating the UK: the British government's sovereign credit ratings, 1976–8," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 68(3), pages 1016-1037, August.
    10. Marc Flandreau, 2013. "Do good sovereigns default? Lessons of history," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 72, pages 19-25, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Marc Flandreau & Juan Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastian Nieto-Parra, 2011. "The Changing Role of Global Financial Brands in the Underwriting of Foreign Government Debt (1815-2010)," IHEID Working Papers 15-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    13. Bradley, Michael & De Lira Salvatierra, Irving & Gulati, Mitu, 2014. "Lawyers: Gatekeepers of the sovereign debt market?," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(S), pages 150-168.
    14. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flandreau, Marc & Packer, Frank & Gaillard, Norbert, 2009. "Ratings Performance, Regulation and the Great Depression: Lessons from Foreign Government Securities," CEPR Discussion Papers 7328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Marc Flandreau & Juan H. Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2010. "The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815–2007," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 53-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ferri, Giovanni, 2004. "More analysts, better ratings: Do rating agencies invest enough in less developed countries?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, May.
    4. Bussière, M. & Ristiniemi, A., 2012. "Credit Ratings and Debt Crises," Working papers 396, Banque de France.
    5. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    6. Hammer, P.L. & Kogan, A. & Lejeune, M.A., 2006. "Modeling country risk ratings using partial orders," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 175(2), pages 836-859, December.
    7. Marc Flandreau & Juan Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastian Nieto-Parra, 2011. "The Changing Role of Global Financial Brands in the Underwriting of Foreign Government Debt (1815-2010)," IHEID Working Papers 15-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    8. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Ibrahim Fatnassi & Zied Ftiti & Habib Hasnaoui, 2014. "Stock Market Reactions to Sovereign Credit Rating Changes: Evidence from Four European Countries," Working Papers 2014-111, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    10. Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Patricio A Valenzuela & Kevin Cowan, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings “Lite”? The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 2007/075, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Bernal, Oscar & Girard, Alexandre & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2016. "The importance of conflicts of interest in attributing sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 48-66.
    12. Rita Martins de Sousa, 2019. "Portugal adoption of the gold standard: political reasons for a monetary choice (1846-1854)," Working Papers GHES - Office of Economic and Social History 2019/64, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, GHES - Social and Economic History Research Unit, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Ioannou, Stefanos & Wójcik, Dariusz & Pažitka, Vladimír, 2021. "Financial centre bias in sub-sovereign credit ratings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    15. Mr. John Kiff & Sylwia Nowak & Miss Liliana B Schumacher, 2012. "Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation Into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings," IMF Working Papers 2012/023, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Flandreau, Marc & Zumer, Frederic & Accominotti, Olivier & Rezzik, Riad, 2008. "Black Man?s Burden: Measured Philanthropy in the British Empire, 1880-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 6811, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Frank J. Fabozzi & Dennis Vink, 2012. "Looking Beyond Credit Ratings: Factors Investors Consider In Pricing European Asset†Backed Securities," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(4), pages 515-542, September.
    18. Li, Huimin & Jeon, Bang Nam & Cho, Seong-Yeon & Chiang, Thomas C., 2008. "The impact of sovereign rating changes and financial contagion on stock market returns: Evidence from five Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-55.
    19. Körner, Finn Marten & Trautwein, Hans-Michael, 2015. "Sovereign credit ratings and the transnationalization of finance: Evidence from a gravity model of portfolio investment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 9, pages 1-54.
    20. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," Discussion Papers in Economics 21075, University of Munich, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    sovereign credit ratings; Great Depression; financial crisis; international bond markets;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:335. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.