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ESG risks and corporate viability: insights from default probability term structure analysis

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  • Fabrizio Ferriani

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marcello Pericoli

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We analyse the impact of ESG risks on the term structure of default probabilities of European non-financial corporations between 2014 and 2022. Our findings reveal that higher ESG scores reduce a company's inherent risk implicit in its probability of default, with more pronounced effects as the time horizon for default probability increases. The impact of ESG risks on corporate viability fluctuates over time and tends to intensify after major events relating to sustainability risks, such as the Paris Agreement or the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, our analysis shows that ESG considerations influence not only the objective or physical probability of default but also the credit risk premium required by investors. This aligns with heightened awareness and stronger investor concerns about sustainability, especially in recent years.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrizio Ferriani & Marcello Pericoli, 2024. "ESG risks and corporate viability: insights from default probability term structure analysis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 892, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_892_24
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    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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