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The term structure of credit spreads, firm fundamentals, and expected stock returns

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  • Han, Bing
  • Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar
  • Zhou, Yi

Abstract

We explore the link between credit and equity markets by considering the informational content of the term structure of credit spreads. A shallower credit term structure predicts decreases in default risk and increases in future profitability, as well as favorable earnings surprises. Further, the slope of the credit term structure negatively predicts future stock returns. While systematic slope risk is priced, information diffusion from the credit market to equities, particularly in less visible stocks, plays an additional role in accounting for return predictability from credit slopes. That is, such predictability is less evident in stocks with high institutional ownership, analyst coverage, and liquidity, and vice versa.

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  • Han, Bing & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Zhou, Yi, 2017. "The term structure of credit spreads, firm fundamentals, and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 147-171.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:124:y:2017:i:1:p:147-171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2017.01.002
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    2. Qingxiang Han & Mengxi He & Yaojie Zhang & Muhammad Umar, 2023. "Default return spread: A powerful predictor of crude oil price returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1786-1804, November.
    3. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2022. "The credit spread curve distribution and economic fluctuations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Sirio Aramonte & Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2022. "Firm-Specific Risk-Neutral Distributions with Options and CDS," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 7018-7033, September.
    5. Zhou, Yi, 2022. "Option trading volume by moneyness, firm fundamentals, and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    6. Giovanni Calice & Ming Zeng, 2021. "The term structure of sovereign credit default swap and the cross‐section of exchange rate predictability," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 445-458, January.
    7. Gredil, Oleg R. & Kapadia, Nishad & Lee, Jung Hoon, 2022. "On the information content of credit ratings and market-based measures of default risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 172-204.
    8. Corvino, Raffaele & Fusai, Gianluca, 2022. "Default risk premium and asset prices," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Thuy Thi Thu Truong & Jungmu Kim, 2019. "Do Corporate Social Responsibility Activities Reduce Credit Risk? Short and Long-Term Perspectives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-16, December.
    10. Zimmermann, Paul, 2021. "The role of the leverage effect in the price discovery process of credit markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    11. Paseda, Oluseun & Olowe, Rufus, 2018. "The Debt Maturity Structure of Nigerian Quoted Firms," MPRA Paper 117061, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Jun 2018.
    12. Park, Heewoo & Kim, Tong Suk & Park, Yuen Jung, 2021. "Asymmetric information in the equity market and information flow from the equity market to the CDS market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cross section of stock return; Credit default spreads; Term structure; Information diffusion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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