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On the information content of credit ratings and market-based measures of default risk

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  • Gredil, Oleg R.
  • Kapadia, Nishad
  • Lee, Jung Hoon

Abstract

We examine the ability of ratings and market-based measures to predict defaults. Although market-based measures are more accurate at horizons up to one year, ratings complement market-based measures and are not redundant in predicting defaults across horizons. Market-based measures differ from ratings in that they respond to both cash-flow and discount-rate news, while ratings respond primarily to cash-flow news, which is more informative of future defaults. Ratings ignore transitory shocks to credit risk, while market-based measures do not. Rating agencies respond to transitory shocks with watches rather than downgrades. Ratings are more informative during expansions and for speculative grade firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Gredil, Oleg R. & Kapadia, Nishad & Lee, Jung Hoon, 2022. "On the information content of credit ratings and market-based measures of default risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 172-204.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:146:y:2022:i:1:p:172-204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2022.07.005
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    1. Wei, Lu & Miao, Xiyuan & Jing, Haozhe & Liu, Zhidong & Xie, Zezhong, 2023. "Bank risk aggregation based on the triple perspectives of bank managers, credit raters, and financial analysts," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
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    3. Gianmarco Bet & Francesco Dainelli & Eugenio Fabrizi, 2023. "The financial health of a company and the risk of its default: Back to the future," Papers 2302.10140, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit ratings; Credit Default Swaps; Default probability; Term strucutre of default risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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