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A Market-Based Measure of Credit Portfolio Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis

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  • Martin Knaup

    (CentER, European Banking Center, and Department of Economics, Tilburg University, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands)

  • Wolf Wagner

    (CentER, European Banking Center, Tilburg Law and Economics Center, and Department of Economics, Tilburg University, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands; and Duisenberg School of Finance, 1082 MS Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

We propose a new method for measuring the quality of banks' credit portfolios. This method makes use of information embedded in bank share prices by exploiting differences in their sensitivity to credit default swap spreads of borrowers of varying quality. The method allows us to derive a credit risk indicator (CRI). This indicator represents the perceived share of high-risk exposures in a bank's portfolio and can be used as a risk weight for computing regulatory capital requirements. We estimate CRIs for the 150 largest U.S. bank holding companies. We find that their CRIs are able to forecast bank failures and share price performances during the crisis of 2007-2009, even after controlling for a variety of traditional asset quality and general risk proxies. This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Knaup & Wolf Wagner, 2012. "A Market-Based Measure of Credit Portfolio Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(8), pages 1423-1437, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:58:y:2012:i:8:p:1423-1437
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1501
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ulf Mohrmann & Jan Riepe, 2019. "The link between the share of banks’ Level 3 assets and their default risk and default costs," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1163-1189, May.
    3. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 875-894.
    4. Bart Keijsers & Bart Diris & Erik Kole, 2018. "Cyclicality in losses on bank loans," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 533-552, June.
    5. Assaf, A. George & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A. & Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "Does efficiency help banks survive and thrive during financial crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 445-470.
    6. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2017. "Understanding transactions prices in the credit default swaps market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-27.
    7. Silva Buston, Consuelo, 2016. "Active risk management and banking stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 203-215.
    8. Silva Buston, C.F., 2013. "Active Risk Management and Banking Stability," Other publications TiSEM 1236246e-0f52-4a46-aeec-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Silva Buston, C.F., 2013. "Active Risk Management and Banking Stability," Other publications TiSEM 18a8d09e-79af-4993-8d64-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Bessler, Wolfgang & Kurmann, Philipp & Nohel, Tom, 2015. "Time-varying systematic and idiosyncratic risk exposures of US bank holding companies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-68.
    11. Jin, Yi & Gao, Xin & Li, Donghui, 2022. "The effect of individualism on bank risk and bank Performance: An international study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Yiwei Fang & Iftekhar Hasan & Woon Sau Leung & Qingwei Wang, 2019. "Foreign ownership, bank information environments, and the international mobility of corporate governance," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 50(9), pages 1566-1593, December.
    13. Avino, Davide E. & Conlon, Thomas & Cotter, John, 2019. "Credit default swaps as indicators of bank financial distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 132-139.
    14. Baele, Lieven & De Bruyckere, Valerie & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2014. "Do stock markets discipline US Bank Holding Companies: Just monitoring, or also influencing?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 124-145.
    15. Hao Fang & Yang-Cheng Lu & Chi-Wei Su, 2013. "Impact of the Subprime Crisis on Commercial Banks’ Financial Performance," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(5), pages 593-614, September.
    16. Zhang, Ailian & Wang, Shuyao & Lien, Donald & Yu, Chia-Feng (Jeffrey), 2023. "Are banks rewarded for financial consumer protection? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    17. Manthoulis, Georgios & Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Galariotis, Emilios, 2020. "An ordinal classification framework for bank failure prediction: Methodology and empirical evidence for US banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 786-801.
    18. Asmild, Mette & Zhu, Minyan, 2016. "Controlling for the use of extreme weights in bank efficiency assessments during the financial crisis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 999-1015.

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