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A Market-Based Measure of Credit Portfolio Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis

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  • Martin Knaup

    () (CentER, European Banking Center, and Department of Economics, Tilburg University, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands)

  • Wolf Wagner

    () (CentER, European Banking Center, Tilburg Law and Economics Center, and Department of Economics, Tilburg University, 5000 LE Tilburg, The Netherlands; and Duisenberg School of Finance, 1082 MS Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

Abstract

We propose a new method for measuring the quality of banks' credit portfolios. This method makes use of information embedded in bank share prices by exploiting differences in their sensitivity to credit default swap spreads of borrowers of varying quality. The method allows us to derive a credit risk indicator (CRI). This indicator represents the perceived share of high-risk exposures in a bank's portfolio and can be used as a risk weight for computing regulatory capital requirements. We estimate CRIs for the 150 largest U.S. bank holding companies. We find that their CRIs are able to forecast bank failures and share price performances during the crisis of 2007-2009, even after controlling for a variety of traditional asset quality and general risk proxies. This paper was accepted by Wei Xiong, finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Knaup & Wolf Wagner, 2012. "A Market-Based Measure of Credit Portfolio Quality and Banks' Performance During the Subprime Crisis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(8), pages 1423-1437, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:58:y:2012:i:8:p:1423-1437
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Are banks too big to fail or too big to save? International evidence from equity prices and CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 875-894.
    2. Bart Keijsers & Bart Diris & Erik Kole, 2018. "Cyclicality in losses on bank loans," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 533-552, June.
    3. Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Yan, Hong, 2017. "Understanding transactions prices in the credit default swaps market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-27.
    4. Bessler, Wolfgang & Kurmann, Philipp & Nohel, Tom, 2015. "Time-varying systematic and idiosyncratic risk exposures of US bank holding companies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-68.
    5. Davide Avino & Thomas Conlon & John Cotter, 2016. "Credit Default Swaps as Indicators of Bank Financial Distress," Working Papers 201601, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    6. Baele, Lieven & De Bruyckere, Valerie & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2014. "Do stock markets discipline US Bank Holding Companies: Just monitoring, or also influencing?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 124-145.
    7. Hao Fang & Yang-Cheng Lu & Chi-Wei Su, 2013. "Impact of the Subprime Crisis on Commercial Banks’ Financial Performance," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 60(5), pages 593-614, September.
    8. Asmild, Mette & Zhu, Minyan, 2016. "Controlling for the use of extreme weights in bank efficiency assessments during the financial crisis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 999-1015.

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